Miscognition of random sequences in sports scene : Penalty kicks as a clue

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  • スポーツ場面におけるランダム事象の誤認知 : ペナルティキックを手掛かりにして
  • スポーツ　バメン　ニオケル　ランダム　ジショウ　ノ　ゴ　ニンチ　ペナルティ　キック　オ　テガカリ　ニ　シテ

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The hot hand fallacy refers to the expectation of streaks in sequences of hits and misses whose probabilities are, in fact, independent. In basketball, the belief in the hot hand occurs when people think a player is more likely to make a hit if he or she has made previous shots. However, the research has shown that players’successive shots are independent events （Gilovich, Vallone, & Tversky, 1985）.Does hot hand fallacy exist in football? To address this question and extend that exploration, I conducted two studies in penalty kicks. First, undergraduate football players fi lled out questionnaires. The questionnaire examined football players’ beliefs in football and the results suggested that they believed in the hot hand streaks in football game. However, they didn’t believe the existence of hot hand belief in penalty kicks. Second, in the experiment, undergraduate participants were asked to predict the hits or misses of the penalty kicks following several sequences. As a result, contrary to the hypothesis, participants exhibited the hot hand fallacy in penalty kicks. However, it has to be noted that their predictions were lower if the base rates were higher and vice versa. The implications of the inconsistency in these results were needed further studies.

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