On Prediction about The 42nd General Election Reported by Mass Media

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  • マスメディアの選挙情勢予測報道をめぐって : 第42回衆議院選挙の分析
  • マスメディア ノ センキョ ジョウセイ ヨソク ホウドウ オ メグッテ ダイ42カイ シュウギイン センキョ ノ ブンセキ

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Abstract

The 42nd general election resulted in victory for the government parties, but Liberal Democratic Party as the main party in administration lost a lot of members of the Diet especially in urban area. The leading Japanese mass media conducted public opinion poll in order to predict the result of general election and reported that perhaps Liberal Democratic Party would win the election. In this report I want to make clear why mass media failed in prediction. I am sure that the result of public opinion poll was based on fact,but that part of votors had changed their intention learning the prediction reported by mass media.

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