The moral hazard affecting accuracy of crime statistics

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  • 警察の犯罪統計作成におけるモラルハザードについて
  • ケイサツ ノ ハンザイ トウケイ サクセイ ニ オケル モラルハザード ニ ツイテ

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This paper analyzes the moral hazard in police detectives which affects the accuracy of crime statistics. It concludes that the moral hazard is characterized as follows. The investigation method employed by police detectives is mainly based on the modus operandi of the suspect. As a result, when offenses have similar modus operandi, they are assumed to have been committed by the same suspect, and thus treated as a group of offences in the investigation. When this consciousness dominates the minds of detectives processing data for compiling crime statistics, it tends to lead them to miscount the pre-investigation offenses with similar modus operandi as the same single offense. However these offences statistically should be treated as separate cases owing to no identification of suspects and distance between scenes. This moral hazard is a factor in producing numbers of offenses smaller than those which would have otherwise been compiled.

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