An Empirical Research on Chinese Shadow Banking and Economic Growth

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  • 中国におけるシャドー・バンキングと経済成長との関連性に関する実証研究
  • チュウゴク ニ オケル シャドー ・ バンキング ト ケイザイ セイチョウ ト ノ カンレンセイ ニ カンスル ジッショウ ケンキュウ

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The purpose of this paper is to interpret the correlation between economic growth and the recent explosive growth of shadow banking, using time series macro-economic data. With the deepening of interest rate marketization in China, China is gradually relaxing its financial market governance and control. Especially since the financial crisis in 2008, the imbalance between supply and demand of capital in financial markets triggered by the four trillion plan has led to the rapid development of Chinese-style shadow banking. As discussed in other studies, its essence is regulatory arbitrage activity with the purpose of evading regulatory window guidance and financial prudential supervision. In order to prove that China has transformed from a simple financing system, dominated by bank financing, to a state of multiple financing methods coexisting with the banks acting as the main player, this paper uses the entrusted loans and trust loans data published on the People’s Bank of China website to construct a VAR model for testing the statistical correlation between Chinese shadow banking and economic growth. Based on theoretical and empirical analysis, it indicates that RMB loans and shadow banking loans have a single Granger relationship with economic growth, and RMB loans and shadow banking loans are of Granger relations.

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