The Long-Term Stability of the LEO Debris Population and the Challenges for Environment Remediation

第5回スペースデブリワークショップ (2013年1月22-23日. 宇宙航空研究開発機構調布航空宇宙センター), 調布市, 東京

5th Space Debris Workshop (January 22-23, 2013, Chofu Aerospace Center, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA)), Chofu, Tokyo, Japan

The near-Earth space environment has been gradually polluted with orbital debris (OD) since the beginning of human space activities in 1957. The OD problem was highlighted by the collision between Cosmos 2251 and the operational Iridium 33 in 2009. This accidental collision underlined the potential of an ongoing collision cascade effect (also known as the “Kessler Syndrome”) in low Earth orbit (LEO, the region below 2000 km altitude). Recent modeling studies conducted by major space agencies around the world indicated that the current LEO environment had already reached the level of instability. Mitigation measures commonly adopted by the international space community, such as the 25-year decay rule, will be insufficient to stabilize the LEO debris population. To better limit the OD population growth, more aggressive actions must be considered. There are three options for OD environment remediation: (1) removal of massive intact objects with high collision probabilities to address the root cause of the long-term OD population growth problem, (2) removal of the from 5-mm-to-1cm debris to mitigate the main mission-ending threats for the majority of operational spacecraft, and (3) prevention of major debris-generating collisions as a temporary means to slow down the OD population increase. The technology, engineering, and cost challenges to carry out any of these three options are monumental. It will require innovative ideas, game-changing technologies, and major collaborations at the international level to address the OD problem and preserve the near-Earth environment for future generations.

形態: カラー図版あり

Physical characteristics: Original contains color illustrations

資料番号: AA0062322003

レポート番号: JAXA-SP-13-018