Success/Failure Prediction for Final Examination Using the LCT Results:A Model using 2017 LCT Data is Applied to 2018 LCT Data

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  • LCT の結果を使った期末試験の合否予測：2017LCT から作成したモデルに2018LCT を適用
  • LCT ノ ケッカ オ ツカッタ キマツ シケン ノ ゴウヒ ヨソク : 2017LCT カラ サクセイ シタ モデル ニ 2018LCT オ テキヨウ

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The author proposed a prediction method to find students with drop-out risks as early as possible by using the learning check testing (LCT) results, where the nearest-neighbor method was used in the previous paper. If we want to build a mathematical model using a part of 2018 LCT results and we want to predict 2018 end-term results using the model, it is impossible to do that in the middle of the term, because we will not have the final results until the end of the term. Thus, in this paper, we investigated whether the proposed method was valid or not by applying the model built using 2017 LCT data to newly obtained 2018 LCT results. Using 2017 model, the prediction accuracies and the corresponding confusion matrices applying to 2018 case were almost the same as that applying to 2017 case. Therefore, the previously proposed method is proved to be useful.

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