COVID-19 on Total Fertility Rates: A Comparative Study of High-Income Countries

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused rapid changes in fertility rates in high-income countries. Interestingly, it significantly increased fertility in some countries, while significantly decreased fertility in others. We explored the countries’ differences in the impact of COVID-19 on TFR. First, we analyzed the trends in fertility rates across high-income countries, dividing them into five groups: Japan and South Korea, Southern Europe, Western Europe and the United States, Northern Europe, and Central Europe. Second, we conducted an event study and difference-in-differences (DID) analyses, controlling for economic factors such as inflation and unemployment rates, to explain the observed differences. The first analysis revealed substantial regional variations, with some regions experiencing a sharp increase in fertility rates after the COVID-19, whereas others experienced a sharp decline. The second set of analyses indicate that rising unemployment rates universally led to a decline in fertility rates across all. Additionally, the influence of inflation on fertility rates varies across regions, with no significant changes observed before or after the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, significant regional disparities in the impact of the COVID-19 shock on fertility rates were found, even when controlling for unemployment and inflation rates, suggesting that economic factors alone cannot fully explain these variations. While COVID-19 substantially affected fertility rates, the nature of this impact differed significantly across regions, implying the presence of non-economic factors.