Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss
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- D. M. Smith
- Met Office Hadley Centre
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- R. Eade
- Met Office Hadley Centre
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- M. B. Andrews
- Met Office Hadley Centre
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- Ayres, H.
- Department of Meteorology, University of Reading
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- Clark, A.
- Met Office Hadley Centre
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- Chripko, S.
- CECI, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, CERFACS
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- Deser, C.
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder
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- N. J. Dunstone
- Met Office Hadley Centre
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- García-Serrano, J.
- Group of Meteorology, Universitat de Barcelona
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- Gastineau, G.
- UMR LOCEAN, Sorbonne Université/CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL)
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- L. S. Graff
- Norwegian Meteorological Institute
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- S. C. Hardiman
- Met Office Hadley Centre
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- He, B.
- State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
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- Hermanson, L.
- Met Office Hadley Centre
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- Jung, T.
- Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research Institute of Environmental Physics, University of Bremen
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- Knight, J.
- Met Office Hadley Centre
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- Levine, X.
- Barcelona Supercomputing Center
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- Magnusdottir, G.
- Department of Earth System Science, University of California Irvine
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- Manzini, E.
- Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie
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- Matei, D.
- Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie
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- Mori, Masato
- Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, Kyushu University
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- Msadek, R.
- CECI, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, CERFACS
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- Ortega, P.
- Barcelona Supercomputing Center
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- Peings, Y.
- Department of Earth System Science, University of California Irvine
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- A. A. Scaife
- Met Office Hadley Centre College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, Exeter University
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- J. A. Screen
- College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, Exeter University
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- Seabrook, M.
- Met Office Hadley Centre
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- Semmler, T.
- Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
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- Sigmond, M.
- Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada
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- Streffing, J.
- Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
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- Sun, L.
- Department of atmospheric science, Colorado State University
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- Walsh, A.
- College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, Exeter University
Description
The possibility that Arctic sea ice loss weakens mid-latitude westerlies, promoting more severe cold winters, has sparked more than a decade of scientific debate, with apparent support from observations but inconclusive modelling evidence. Here we show that sixteen models contributing to the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project simulate a weakening of mid-latitude westerlies in response to projected Arctic sea ice loss. We develop an emergent constraint based on eddy feedback, which is 1.2 to 3 times too weak in the models, suggesting that the real-world weakening lies towards the higher end of the model simulations. Still, the modelled response to Arctic sea ice loss is weak: the North Atlantic Oscillation response is similar in magnitude and offsets the projected response to increased greenhouse gases, but would only account for around 10% of variations in individual years. We further find that relationships between Arctic sea ice and atmospheric circulation have weakened recently in observations and are no longer inconsistent with those in models.
Journal
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- Nature Communications
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Nature Communications 13 727-, 2022-02-07
Springer
