洪水災害の発生と出水予知

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タイトル別名
  • DISASTER DUE TO FLOOD AND FLOOD FORECASTING
  • コウズイ サイガイ ノ ハッセイ ト シュッスイ ヨチ

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抄録

Recently, in order to prevent a disaster due to a flood, embankments, reservoirs for flood control, divergent channels and so on have provided in a river basin. This paper, first of all, discribes a flowdiagram of occurrence of disasters in such a complicated river system, which is characterised by twosub-systems of the runoff process of rainfalls and the flood control by reservoirs, and of the decisionprocess of destruction of protection works against floods. It is pointed out that this flow diagram isvery helpful to determine a design criterion of protection works and to set up a flood forecastingand warning system.Next, after discussing a runoff process of rainfall in a river basin, the synthetic method of floodforecasting is proposed by the use of a combination of tank model and modified time-are-concentra-tion diagram. Lastly, an example of evaluation of destruction probabilities of embankments in theneighbourhood of confluence of two tributaries and a proposal of the relationship between designfloods for upstream area and downstream area in a river basin are presented in the light of the flowdiagram of occurrence of disasters.

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