中国における化石エネルギー起源のCO_2排出量変化の要因分析

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  • Decomposition Analyses of the Changes in China's CO_2 Emissions from Fossil Fuels
  • チュウゴク ニ オケル カセキ エネルギー キゲン ノ C0 ₂ ハイシュツリョウ ヘンカ ノ ヨウイン ブンセキ

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The purpose of this paper is to analyze the changes in China's CO_2 emissions from fossil fuels in the period from1980 to 2009by decomposing them into some factors. First, applying the Kaya Identity, changes in the total CO_2 emissions are decomposed into the factors of "fuel conversion," "energy saving," "economy," and "population." During this period, the factor of economy, which is represented as per capita GDP, has been the largest factor increasing the total CO_2 emissions, and the factor of energy saving has been the largest factor decreasing them. The factor of fuel conversion has had little effect on decreasing the total CO_2 emissions. Second, applying the Simple Average Divisia method to the extended Kaya Identity, changes in CO_2 emissions per GDP are decomposed into the factors of "fuel conversion," "saving energy" and "industrial structure" in each sector. During this period, the factor of saving energy has contributed to decreasing CO_2 emissions per GDP, while the factor of fuel conversion has had only a little decreasing effect. The factor of industrial structure has increased CO_2 emissions per GDP. Lately, the effects of saving energy and fuel conversion have become much small in the manufacturing sector, of which the share of CO_2 emissions is the largest in China. Under this situation, the unchanged weight of manufacturing sector cannot decrease China's CO_2 emissions per GDP, and the growing GDP has been increasing the total CO_2 emissions.

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