Method for Deriving Evacuation Routes Considering Disaster Risk

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Abstract

Achieving safe evacuation is the main goal of selecting an evacuation route. General path-finding methods determine a single shortest route to one end point; however, this is insufficient for selecting evacuation routes. Central Tokyo has a dense population with many tourists, and there are many areas with high disaster risk, such as densely populated wooden houses. As a result, it is important to prepare multiple evacuation sites and routes in case the optimal ones become unavailable. At present, the safety of evacuation routes is determined empirically; however, it should also be evaluated by quantitatively comparing multiple evacuation route candidates. In this paper, we propose a method for simultaneously deriving multiple evacuation route candidates using the Physarum solver. This method also quantitatively considers disaster risk. To evaluate the safety of the evacuation routes derived by this method, we define an index called the evacuation success rate. By developing a method for obtaining multiple evacuation routes considering disaster risk and by providing an index for quantitatively evaluating the safety of the obtained evacuation routes, safe and rapid evacuation can be achieved during disasters.------------------------------This is a preprint of an article intended for publication Journal ofInformation Processing(JIP). This preprint should not be cited. Thisarticle should be cited as: Journal of Information Processing Vol.28(2020) (online)DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.2197/ipsjjip.28.1065------------------------------

Achieving safe evacuation is the main goal of selecting an evacuation route. General path-finding methods determine a single shortest route to one end point; however, this is insufficient for selecting evacuation routes. Central Tokyo has a dense population with many tourists, and there are many areas with high disaster risk, such as densely populated wooden houses. As a result, it is important to prepare multiple evacuation sites and routes in case the optimal ones become unavailable. At present, the safety of evacuation routes is determined empirically; however, it should also be evaluated by quantitatively comparing multiple evacuation route candidates. In this paper, we propose a method for simultaneously deriving multiple evacuation route candidates using the Physarum solver. This method also quantitatively considers disaster risk. To evaluate the safety of the evacuation routes derived by this method, we define an index called the evacuation success rate. By developing a method for obtaining multiple evacuation routes considering disaster risk and by providing an index for quantitatively evaluating the safety of the obtained evacuation routes, safe and rapid evacuation can be achieved during disasters.------------------------------This is a preprint of an article intended for publication Journal ofInformation Processing(JIP). This preprint should not be cited. Thisarticle should be cited as: Journal of Information Processing Vol.28(2020) (online)DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.2197/ipsjjip.28.1065------------------------------

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