Designing isolation guidelines for COVID-19 patients with rapid antigen tests

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  • Jeong, Yong Dam
    interdisciplinary Biology Laboratory (iBLab), Division of Biological Science, Graduate School of Science, Nagoya University; Department of Mathematics, Pusan National University
  • 江島, 啓介
    Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Public Health-Bloomington; The Tokyo Foundation for Policy Research
  • Kim, Kwang Su
    interdisciplinary Biology Laboratory (iBLab), Division of Biological Science, Graduate School of Science, Nagoya University; Department of Scientific computing, Pukyong National University
  • Joohyeon, Woo
    interdisciplinary Biology Laboratory (iBLab), Division of Biological Science, Graduate School of Science, Nagoya University
  • 岩波, 翔也
    interdisciplinary Biology Laboratory (iBLab), Division of Biological Science, Graduate School of Science, Nagoya University
  • 藤田, 泰久
    interdisciplinary Biology Laboratory (iBLab), Division of Biological Science, Graduate School of Science, Nagoya University
  • Jung, Il Hyo
    Department of Mathematics, Pusan National University
  • 合原, 一幸
    International Research Center for Neurointelligence, The University of Tokyo
  • 渋谷, 健司
    The Tokyo Foundation for Policy Research
  • 岩見, 真吾
    interdisciplinary Biology Laboratory (iBLab), Division of Biological Science, Graduate School of Science, Nagoya University; Institute of Mathematics for Industry, Kyushu University; Institute for the Advanced Study of Human Biology (ASHBi), Kyoto University; NEXT-Ganken Program, Japanese Foundation for Cancer Research (JFCR); Interdisciplinary Theoretical and Mathematical Sciences Program (iTHEMS), RIKEN; Science Groove Inc,
  • Bento, Ana I.
    Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Public Health-Bloomington
  • Ajelli, Marco
    Laboratory for Computational Epidemiology and Public Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Public Health-Bloomington
  • 江島, 啓介
  • 岩波, 翔也
  • 藤田, 泰久
  • 合原, 一幸
  • 渋谷, 健司
  • 岩見, 真吾

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説明

Appropriate isolation guidelines for COVID-19 patients are warranted. Currently, isolating for fixed time is adopted in most countries. However, given the variability in viral dynamics between patients, some patients may no longer be infectious by the end of isolation, whereas others may still be infectious. Utilizing viral test results to determine isolation length would minimize both the risk of prematurely ending isolation of infectious patients and the unnecessary individual burden of redundant isolation of noninfectious patients. In this study, we develop a data-driven computational framework to compute the population-level risk and the burden of different isolation guidelines with rapid antigen tests (i.e., lateral flow tests). Here, we show that when the detection limit is higher than the infectiousness threshold values, additional consecutive negative results are needed to ascertain infectiousness status. Further, rapid antigen tests should be designed to have lower detection limits than infectiousness threshold values to minimize the length of prolonged isolation.

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