感染性接触の点過程によるモデル化

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書誌事項

タイトル別名
  • カンセンセイ セッショク ノ テン カテイ ニ ヨル モデルカ
  • Kansensei sesshoku no ten katei ni yoru moderuka
  • A point process modeling of infectious contacts

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説明

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Assuming that the time series of contacts made by a typical individual with other individuals in a population costitutes a Poisson point process, we construct a stochastic model describing the infectivity and contact frequency which change with time elapsed since infection. Based on this model, we first consider the meaning of effective reproduction number in a changing epidemic situation. Secondly, assuming that new cases increase according to a branching process, we deduce the well-known formula which relates the exponential growth rate and reproduction number through the moment generating function of a probability distribution. In the rare contact limit, this distribution may be interpreted as that of generation intervals.

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収録刊行物

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