Recent slowdown of tropical upper tropospheric warming associated with Pacific climate variability
-
- Youichi Kamae
- Center for Global Environmental Research National Institute for Environmental Studies Tsukuba Japan
-
- Hideo Shiogama
- Center for Global Environmental Research National Institute for Environmental Studies Tsukuba Japan
-
- Masahiro Watanabe
- Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute University of Tokyo Kashiwa Japan
-
- Masayoshi Ishii
- Meteorological Research Institute Tsukuba Japan
-
- Hiroaki Ueda
- Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences University of Tsukuba Tsukuba Japan
-
- Masahide Kimoto
- Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute University of Tokyo Kashiwa Japan
書誌事項
- 公開日
- 2015-04-28
- 資源種別
- journal article
- 権利情報
-
- http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
- DOI
-
- 10.1002/2015gl063608
- 公開者
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
この論文をさがす
説明
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Observed upper tropospheric temperature over the tropics (<jats:italic>T</jats:italic><jats:sub>TUT</jats:sub>) shows a slowdown in warming rate during 1997–2011 despite the continuous warming projected by coupled atmosphere‐ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). This observation‐model discord is an underlying issue regarding the reliability of future climate projections based on AOGCMs. To investigate the slowdown, we conducted ensemble historical simulations using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced by observed sea surface temperature both with and without anthropogenic influences. The historical AGCM run reproduced a muted <jats:italic>T</jats:italic><jats:sub>TUT</jats:sub> change over the central Pacific (CP) found in multiple observations, while the multi‐AOGCM mean did not. Recent tropical Pacific cooling, which is considered natural variability, contributes to the muted trend over the CP and the resultant slowdown of <jats:italic>T</jats:italic><jats:sub>TUT</jats:sub> increase. The results of this study suggest that difficulties in simulating the recent “upper tropospheric warming hiatus” do not indicate low reliability of AOGCM‐based future climate projections.</jats:p>
収録刊行物
-
- Geophysical Research Letters
-
Geophysical Research Letters 42 (8), 2995-3003, 2015-04-28
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Tweet
詳細情報 詳細情報について
-
- CRID
- 1360004229803753600
-
- ISSN
- 19448007
- 00948276
-
- 資料種別
- journal article
-
- データソース種別
-
- Crossref
- KAKEN
- OpenAIRE
