Quantitative Assessment of Epistemic Uncertainties in Tsunami Hazard Effects on Building Risk Assessments
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- Yo Fukutani
- College of Science and Engineering, Kanto Gakuin University, Yokohama 236-8501, Japan
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- Anawat Suppasri
- International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku University, Sendai 980-0845, Japan
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- Fumihiko Imamura
- International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku University, Sendai 980-0845, Japan
書誌事項
- 公開日
- 2018-01-10
- 資源種別
- journal article
- 権利情報
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- https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
- DOI
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- 10.3390/geosciences8010017
- 公開者
- MDPI AG
説明
<jats:p>Based on the definition of tsunami risk, we quantitatively evaluated the annual expected tsunami loss ratio (Tsunami Risk Index) and clarified the quantitative effects of epistemic uncertainties in tsunami hazard assessments on the tsunami risk of buildings by combining probabilistic information regarding tsunami inundation depths at target points and tsunami fragility assessments of buildings. For the risk assessment, we targeted buildings with four different structures (reinforced concrete, steel, brick, wood) located in three different areas (Soma, Sendai, Kesennuma). In conclusion, we demonstrated that the expected tsunami risk could vary by approximately two orders of magnitude when considering tsunami hazard uncertainties between the 95th percentile and the 5th percentile. In addition, we quantitatively clarified the fact that we cannot properly understand the tsunami risk by evaluating the tsunami fragility alone. For example, the analysis results indicate that the tsunami risk of a wood building located in Kesennuma is lower than that of a reinforced concrete building located in either Soma or Sendai.</jats:p>
収録刊行物
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- Geosciences
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Geosciences 8 (1), 17-, 2018-01-10
MDPI AG
- Tweet
キーワード
詳細情報 詳細情報について
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- CRID
- 1360004239487446144
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- ISSN
- 20763263
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- 資料種別
- journal article
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- データソース種別
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- Crossref
- KAKEN
- OpenAIRE
