Earthquake triggering model based on normal-stress-dependent Nagata law: application to the 2016 Mie offshore earthquake

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>We propose a normal-stress-dependent Nagata law. Nagata et al. (J Geophys Res 117:B02314, 2012) revised the rate- and state-dependent friction law by introducing the shear stress dependence. We further extended the Nagata law by incorporating the normal stress dependence obtained by Linker and Dieterich (J Geophys Res 97:4923–4940, 1992). We performed numerical simulations of earthquake triggering by assuming the extended Nagata law. In the case of repeated earthquakes, we applied dynamic Coulomb failure function (CFF) perturbation due to normal or shear stress changes. CFF perturbation increased the slip velocity after the cessation of perturbation, relative to that of the repeated events without triggering. This leads to dynamic earthquake triggering for certain perturbation amplitudes with time to instability of 0 to several tens of days. In addition, triggering potential of the static CFF jump (ΔCFF<jats:sub>s</jats:sub>) was investigated. Static stress perturbation has a higher triggering potential than dynamic stress perturbation for the same magnitude of CFF. The equivalent ΔCFF<jats:sub>eq</jats:sub>is evaluated for dynamic perturbation that results in a triggering potential approximately the same as in the case of static stress perturbation if ΔCFF<jats:sub>s</jats:sub> = ΔCFF<jats:sub>eq</jats:sub>. We calculated ΔCFF<jats:sub>eq</jats:sub>on the interface of the Philippine Sea plate for the Mie offshore earthquake, which occurred around the Nankai Trough on April 1, 2016, using OpenSWPC. The results shows that ΔCFF<jats:sub>eq</jats:sub>is large around the trough, where slow slip events followed the Mie earthquake, suggesting that a large ΔCFF<jats:sub>eq</jats:sub>may have triggered slow slip events.</jats:p>