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- John R. Giles
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21205;
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- Elisabeth zu Erbach-Schoenberg
- Department of Geography and the Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, United Kingdom;
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- Andrew J. Tatem
- Department of Geography and the Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, United Kingdom;
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- Lauren Gardner
- Department of Civil and Systems Engineering, Johns Hopkins Whiting School of Engineering, Baltimore, MD 21218;
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- Ottar N. Bjørnstad
- Department of Entomology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802;
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- C. J. E. Metcalf
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544;
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- Amy Wesolowski
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21205;
説明
<jats:title>Significance</jats:title> <jats:p>The spatial dynamics of infectious-disease spread are driven by the biology of the pathogen and the connectivity patterns among human populations. Models of disease spread often use mobile-phone calling records to calculate the number of trips made among locations in the population, which is used as a proxy for population connectivity. However, the amount of time people spend in a destination (trip duration) also impacts the probability of onward disease transmission among locations. Here, we developed models that incorporate trip duration into the mechanism of disease spread, which helps us understand how fast and how far a pathogen might spread in a human population.</jats:p>
収録刊行物
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- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117 (36), 22572-22579, 2020-08-24
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
