Big data integration shows Australian bush-fire frequency is increasing significantly
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- Ritaban Dutta
- CSIRO Data61, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
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- Aruneema Das
- School of Medicine, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7000, Australia
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- Jagannath Aryal
- School of Land and Food, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
書誌事項
- 公開日
- 2016-02
- 権利情報
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- https://royalsociety.org/journals/ethics-policies/data-sharing-mining/
- DOI
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- 10.1098/rsos.150241
- 公開者
- The Royal Society
説明
<jats:p>Increasing Australian bush-fire frequencies over the last decade has indicated a major climatic change in coming future. Understanding such climatic change for Australian bush-fire is limited and there is an urgent need of scientific research, which is capable enough to contribute to Australian society. Frequency of bush-fire carries information on spatial, temporal and climatic aspects of bush-fire events and provides contextual information to model various climate data for accurately predicting future bush-fire hot spots. In this study, we develop an ensemble method based on a two-layered machine learning model to establish relationship between fire incidence and climatic data. In a 336 week data trial, we demonstrate that the model provides highly accurate bush-fire incidence hot-spot estimation (91% global accuracy) from the weekly climatic surfaces. Our analysis also indicates that Australian weekly bush-fire frequencies increased by 40% over the last 5 years, particularly during summer months, implicating a serious climatic shift.</jats:p>
収録刊行物
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- Royal Society Open Science
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Royal Society Open Science 3 (2), 150241-, 2016-02
The Royal Society