Attribution of Stratospheric and Tropospheric Ozone Changes Between 1850 and 2014 in CMIP6 Models
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- Guang Zeng
- National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) Wellington New Zealand
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- Olaf Morgenstern
- National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) Wellington New Zealand
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- Jonny H. T. Williams
- National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) Wellington New Zealand
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- Fiona M. O’Connor
- Hadley Centre Met Office Exeter UK
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- Paul T. Griffiths
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science Cambridge UK
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- James Keeble
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science Cambridge UK
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- Makoto Deushi
- Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) Tsukuba Japan
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- Larry W. Horowitz
- Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Princeton NJ USA
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- Vaishali Naik
- Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Princeton NJ USA
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- Louisa K. Emmons
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Boulder CO USA
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- N. Luke Abraham
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science Cambridge UK
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- Alexander T. Archibald
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science Cambridge UK
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- Susanne E. Bauer
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) New York NY USA
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- Birgit Hassler
- Deutsches Zentrum für Luft‐ und Raumfahrt (DLR) Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre Oberpfaffenhofen Germany
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- Martine Michou
- Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM) Université de Toulouse Météo‐France CNRS Toulouse France
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- Michael J. Mills
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Boulder CO USA
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- Lee T. Murray
- University of Rochester Rochester NY USA
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- Naga Oshima
- Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) Tsukuba Japan
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- Lori T. Sentman
- Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Princeton NJ USA
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- Simone Tilmes
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Boulder CO USA
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- Kostas Tsigaridis
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) New York NY USA
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- Paul J. Young
- Lancaster Environment Centre Lancaster University Lancaster UK
説明
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>We quantify the impacts of halogenated ozone‐depleting substances (ODSs), greenhouse gases (GHGs), and short‐lived ozone precursors on ozone changes between 1850 and 2014 using single‐forcing perturbation simulations from several Earth system models with interactive chemistry participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project. We present the responses of ozone to individual forcings and an attribution of changes in ozone columns and vertically resolved stratospheric and tropospheric ozone to these forcings. We find that whilst substantial ODS‐induced ozone loss dominates the stratospheric ozone changes since the 1970s, in agreement with previous studies, increases in tropospheric ozone due to increases in short‐lived ozone precursors and methane since the 1950s make increasingly important contributions to total column ozone (TCO) changes. Increases in methane also lead to substantial extra‐tropical stratospheric ozone increases. Impacts of nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide on stratospheric ozone are significant but their impacts on TCO are small overall due to several opposing factors and are also associated with large dynamical variability. The multi‐model mean (MMM) results show a clear change in the stratospheric ozone trends after 2000 due to now declining ODSs, but the trends are generally not significantly positive, except in the extra‐tropical upper stratosphere, due to relatively small changes in forcing over this period combined with large model uncertainty. Although the MMM ozone compares well with the observations, the inter‐model differences are large primarily due to the large differences in the models' representation of ODS‐induced ozone depletion.</jats:p>
収録刊行物
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- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
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Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 127 (16), 2022-08-16
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
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詳細情報 詳細情報について
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- CRID
- 1360017279848049664
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- ISSN
- 21698996
- 2169897X
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- データソース種別
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- Crossref
- KAKEN