Risk scoring system for the preprocedural prediction of the clinical failure of peroral endoscopic myotomy: a multicenter case–control study

  • Hirofumi Abe
    Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, Kobe, Japan
  • Shinwa Tanaka
    Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, Kobe, Japan
  • Hiroki Sato
    Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, Niigata University, Niigata, Japan
  • Yuto Shimamura
    Digestive Diseases Center, Showa University Koto-Toyosu Hospital, Tokyo, Japan
  • Hiroki Okada
    Department of Gastroenterological Surgery, Fukuoka University Faculty of Medicine, Fukuoka, Japan
  • Junya Shiota
    Department of Gastroenterology & Hepatology, Nagasaki University Hospital, Nagasaki, Japan
  • Chiaki Sato
    Department of Surgery, Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, Sendai, Japan
  • Hiroyuki Sakae
    Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Okayama University Graduate School of Medicine, Dentistry and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Okayama, Japan
  • Masaki Ominami
    Department of Gastroenterology, Osaka City University Graduate School of Medicine, Osaka, Japan
  • Yoshitaka Hata
    Department of Medicine and Bioregulatory Science, Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan
  • Hisashi Fukuda
    Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Jichi Medical University, Shimotsuke, Japan
  • Ryo Ogawa
    Department of Gastroenterology, Faculty of Medicine, Oita University, Oita, Japan
  • Jun Nakamura
    Department of Endoscopy, Fukushima Medical University Hospital, Fukushima, Japan
  • Tetsuya Tatsuta
    Department of Gastroenterology and Hematology, Hirosaki University Graduate School of Medicine, Aomori, Japan
  • Yuichiro Ikebuchi
    Division of Gastroenterology and Nephrology, Department of Multidisciplinary Internal Medicine, Tottori University Faculty of Medicine, Yonago, Japan
  • Hiroshi Yokomichi
    Department of Health Sciences, University of Yamanashi, Yamanashi, Japan
  • Haruhiro Inoue
    Digestive Diseases Center, Showa University Koto-Toyosu Hospital, Tokyo, Japan

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<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p> Background Peroral endoscopic myotomy (POEM) is effective for the management of achalasia and its variants; however, it can be ineffective in some patients. We aimed to develop and validate a risk scoring system to predict the clinical failure of POEM preoperatively.</jats:p><jats:p> Methods Consecutive patients who underwent POEM in 14 high volume centers between 2010 and 2020 were enrolled in this study. Clinical failure was defined as an Eckardt score of ≥ 4 or retreatment. A risk scoring system to predict the short-term clinical failure of POEM was developed using multivariable logistic regression and internally validated using bootstrapping and decision curve analysis.</jats:p><jats:p> Results Of the 2740 study patients, 112 (4.1 %) experienced clinical failure 6 months after POEM. Risk scores were assigned for three preoperative factors as follows: preoperative Eckardt score (1 point), manometric diagnosis (−4 points for type II achalasia), and a history of prior treatments (1 point for pneumatic dilation or 12 points for surgical/endoscopic myotomy). The discriminative capacity (concordance statistics 0.68, 95 %CI 0.62–0.72) and calibration (slope 1.15, 95 %CI 0.87–1.40) were shown. Decision curve analysis demonstrated its clinical usefulness. Patients were categorized into low (0–8 points; estimated risk of clinical failure < 5 %) and high risk (9–22 points; ≥ 5 %) groups. The proportions of clinical failure for the categories were stratified according to the mid-term outcomes (log-rank test, P < 0.001).</jats:p><jats:p> Conclusions This risk scoring system can predict the clinical failure of POEM preoperatively and provide useful information when making treatment decisions.</jats:p>

Journal

  • Endoscopy

    Endoscopy 55 (03), 217-224, 2022-06-15

    Georg Thieme Verlag KG

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