Permutation entropy variations in seismic noise before and after eruptive activity at Shinmoedake volcano, Kirishima complex, Japan

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Permutation entropy (PE) is a complexity metric that encodes a time series into sequences of symbols and can be used to decipher between deterministic and stochastic behavior. This study investigates PE variations in seismic noise during three eruption cycles in 2011, 2017, and 2018 at Shinmoedake volcano, Japan. The volcano is monitored by a dedicated seismic network and by infrasound microphones that recorded continuously during the aforementioned eruptions. The frequency range 1–7 Hz was used in order to infer temporal changes of PE in seismic noise and minimize any human contributions. The results showed that PE values decreased before the occurrence of each eruption. By combining these results with other observations we can attribute this decrease in PE to two reasons: first, to the occurrence of volcanic tremor that is a deterministic signal, and second, to magma migration at shallower depth beneath Shinmoedake which can attenuate high-frequency seismic waves and thus result in a less stochastic signal. PE also exhibited a spike-like increase just before the onset of the three eruptions. In 2011 and 2017, this feature was probably associated with bubble growth and collapse due to the interaction between the aquifer and high temperature magma. In 2018 the aquifer had mostly evaporated; hence, the spike in PE values was likely generated by fracturing of solidified magma within the conduit as fresh magma was pushing its way upwards. These results show that PE is a potentially useful tool for monitoring seismic noise at volcanoes and can contribute toward forecasting volcanic eruptions in conjunction with other widely used methodologies.</jats:p> <jats:p><jats:bold>Graphical Abstract</jats:bold></jats:p>