Late-spring frost risk between 1959 and 2017 decreased in North America but increased in Europe and Asia

  • Constantin M. Zohner
    Institute of Integrative Biology, ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology), 8092 Zurich, Switzerland;
  • Lidong Mo
    Institute of Integrative Biology, ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology), 8092 Zurich, Switzerland;
  • Susanne S. Renner
    Systematic Botany and Mycology, Department of Biology, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, 80638 Munich, Germany;
  • Jens-Christian Svenning
    Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World (BIOCHANGE), Department of Biology, Aarhus University, DK-8000 Aarhus C, Denmark;
  • Yann Vitasse
    Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland;
  • Blas M. Benito
    Department of Biological Sciences, University of Bergen, 5020 Bergen, Norway;
  • Alejandro Ordonez
    Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World (BIOCHANGE), Department of Biology, Aarhus University, DK-8000 Aarhus C, Denmark;
  • Frederik Baumgarten
    Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland;
  • Jean-François Bastin
    Institute of Integrative Biology, ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology), 8092 Zurich, Switzerland;
  • Veronica Sebald
    Systematic Botany and Mycology, Department of Biology, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, 80638 Munich, Germany;
  • Peter B. Reich
    Department of Forest Resources, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108;
  • Jingjing Liang
    Lab of Forest Advanced Computing and Artificial Intelligence, Department of Forestry and Natural Resources, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907;
  • Gert-Jan Nabuurs
    Wageningen Environmental Research, Wageningen University and Research, 6700AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands;
  • Sergio de-Miguel
    Department of Crop and Forest Sciences, University of Lleida, E25198 Lleida, Spain;
  • Giorgio Alberti
    Department of Agricultural, Food, Environmental and Animal Sciences, University of Udine, 33100 Udine, Italy;
  • Clara Antón-Fernández
    Division of Forestry and Forest Resources NIBIO, Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research, NO-1431 Ås, Norway;
  • Radomir Balazy
    Department of Geomatics, Forest Research Institute, Sekocin Stary, 05-090 Raszyn, Poland;
  • Urs-Beat Brändli
    Swiss National Forest Inventory, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland;
  • Han Y. H. Chen
    Faculty of Natural Resources Management, Lakehead University, Thunder Bay, ON P7B 5E1, Canada;
  • Chelsea Chisholm
    Institute of Integrative Biology, ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology), 8092 Zurich, Switzerland;
  • Emil Cienciala
    Institute of Forest Ecosystem Research IFER, CZ 254 01 Jilove u Prahy, Czech Republic;
  • Selvadurai Dayanandan
    Centre for Structural and Functional Genomics, Biology Department, Concordia University, Montreal, QC H4B 1R6, Canada;
  • Tom M. Fayle
    Biology Centre of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Entomology, 370 05 Ceske Budejovice, Czech Republic;
  • Lorenzo Frizzera
    Department of Sustainable Agro-ecosystems and Bioresources, Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, 38010 San Michele all’Adige, Trentino, Italy;
  • Damiano Gianelle
    Department of Sustainable Agro-ecosystems and Bioresources, Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, 38010 San Michele all’Adige, Trentino, Italy;
  • Andrzej M. Jagodzinski
    Institute of Dendrology, Polish Academy of Sciences, PL-62-035 Kórnik, Poland;
  • Bogdan Jaroszewicz
    Białowieża Geobotanical Station, Faculty of Biology, University of Warsaw, PL-17-230 Bialowieza, Poland;
  • Tommaso Jucker
    School of Biological Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1TQ United Kingdom;
  • Sebastian Kepfer-Rojas
    Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Frederiksberg C 1958, Denmark;
  • Mohammed Latif Khan
    Department of Botany, Dr. Harisingh Gour Vishwavidyalaya University, Sagar, Madhya Pradesh 470003, India;
  • Hyun Seok Kim
    Department of Forest Sciences, Seoul National University, 08826 Seoul, Republic of Korea;
  • Henn Korjus
    Institute of Forestry and Rural Engineering, Estonian University of Life Sciences, 51006 Tartu, Estonia;
  • Vivian Kvist Johannsen
    Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Frederiksberg C 1958, Denmark;
  • Diana Laarmann
    Institute of Forestry and Rural Engineering, Estonian University of Life Sciences, 51006 Tartu, Estonia;
  • Mait Lang
    Institute of Forestry and Rural Engineering, Estonian University of Life Sciences, 51006 Tartu, Estonia;
  • Tomasz Zawila-Niedzwiecki
    Coordination Centre for Environmental Projects, Polish State Forests, 02-362 Warsaw, Poland;
  • Pascal A. Niklaus
    Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, 8057 Zurich, Switzerland;
  • Alain Paquette
    Centre for Forest Research, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montreal, H3C 3P8 Canada;
  • Hans Pretzsch
    School of Life Sciences Weihenstephan, Technical University of Munich, 85354 Freising, Germany;
  • Purabi Saikia
    Department of Environmental Sciences, Central University of Jharkhand, Brambe, Ranchi, Jharkhand 835205, India;
  • Peter Schall
    Silviculture and Forest Ecology of the Temperate Zones, University of Göttingen, 37077 Göttingen, Germany;
  • Vladimír Šebeň
    National Forest Centre, 96001 Zvolen, Slovak Republic;
  • Miroslav Svoboda
    Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences in Prague, Praha 6 Suchdol, 16521, Czech Republic;
  • Elena Tikhonova
    Center for Forest Ecology and Productivity, Russian Academy of Sciences, 117997 Moscow, Russian Federation;
  • Helder Viana
    Agricultural High School, Polytechnic Institute of Viseu, 3500-606 Viseu, Portugal;
  • Chunyu Zhang
    Research Center of Forest Management Engineering of State Forestry and Grassland Administration, Beijing Forestry University, 100083 Beijing, China
  • Xiuhai Zhao
    Research Center of Forest Management Engineering of State Forestry and Grassland Administration, Beijing Forestry University, 100083 Beijing, China
  • Thomas W. Crowther
    Institute of Integrative Biology, ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology), 8092 Zurich, Switzerland;

抄録

<jats:p>Late-spring frosts (LSFs) affect the performance of plants and animals across the world’s temperate and boreal zones, but despite their ecological and economic impact on agriculture and forestry, the geographic distribution and evolutionary impact of these frost events are poorly understood. Here, we analyze LSFs between 1959 and 2017 and the resistance strategies of Northern Hemisphere woody species to infer trees’ adaptations for minimizing frost damage to their leaves and to forecast forest vulnerability under the ongoing changes in frost frequencies. Trait values on leaf-out and leaf-freezing resistance come from up to 1,500 temperate and boreal woody species cultivated in common gardens. We find that areas in which LSFs are common, such as eastern North America, harbor tree species with cautious (late-leafing) leaf-out strategies. Areas in which LSFs used to be unlikely, such as broad-leaved forests and shrublands in Europe and Asia, instead harbor opportunistic tree species (quickly reacting to warming air temperatures). LSFs in the latter regions are currently increasing, and given species’ innate resistance strategies, we estimate that ∼35% of the European and ∼26% of the Asian temperate forest area, but only ∼10% of the North American, will experience increasing late-frost damage in the future. Our findings reveal region-specific changes in the spring-frost risk that can inform decision-making in land management, forestry, agriculture, and insurance policy.</jats:p>

収録刊行物

被引用文献 (2)*注記

もっと見る

詳細情報 詳細情報について

問題の指摘

ページトップへ