Assessing the capacity of agricultural research and development to increase the stability of global crop yields under climate change

DOI PDF PDF 参考文献65件 オープンアクセス
  • Toshichika Iizumi
    Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, 3-1-3 Kannondai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8604 ,
  • Toru Sakai
    Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences, 1-1 Ohwashi, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058-686 ,
  • Yoshimitsu Masaki
    Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, 3-1-3 Kannondai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8604 ,
  • Kei Oyoshi
    Earth Observation Research Center, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, 2-1-1 Sengen, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8505 ,
  • Takahiro Takimoto
    Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, 3-1-3 Kannondai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8604 ,
  • Hideo Shiogama
    National Institute for Environmental Studies, 19-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506 ,
  • Yukiko Imada
    Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-8564 ,
  • David Makowski
    Université Paris-Saclay, INRAE, AgroParisTech, UMR 518 MIA, Palaiseau ,
  • Joann Whalen
    editor

書誌事項

公開日
2025-03-22
資源種別
journal article
権利情報
  • https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
DOI
  • 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgaf099
公開者
Oxford University Press (OUP)

説明

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p>Agricultural research and development (R&D) has increased crop yields, but little is known about its ability to increase yield stability in the context of increasingly frequent extreme weather events. Using a grid yield dataset, we show that from 2000 to 2019, the SD of yield anomalies for maize, rice, wheat, and soybean increased in 20% of the global harvested area. Based on random forest models relating yield anomaly to climate, soil, management, and public R&D expenditure, we show that cumulative agricultural R&D expenditure, proportion of growing season exposed to optimal hourly temperatures, and dry and very wet days are key factors explaining crop yield variability. An attribution analysis based on large ensemble climate simulations with and without human influence on the global climate shows that unfavorable agroclimatic conditions due to climate change has increased SD, while higher R&D expenditure has led to more contrasting trends in SD over 2000–2019. Although R&D has continued steadily in most countries, this study indicates that the progress made in R&D since 2000 may have lagged behind the unfavorable effect of climate change on yield variability.</jats:p>

収録刊行物

  • PNAS Nexus

    PNAS Nexus 4 (4), 2025-03-22

    Oxford University Press (OUP)

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