A Madden‐Julian Oscillation event remotely accelerates ocean upwelling to abruptly terminate the 1997/1998 super El Niño

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  • T. Miyakawa
    Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute The University of Tokyo Kashiwa Japan
  • H. Yashiro
    RIKEN Advanced Institute for Computational Sciences Kobe Japan
  • T. Suzuki
    Japan Agency for Marine‐Earth Science and Technology Yokohama Japan
  • H. Tatebe
    Japan Agency for Marine‐Earth Science and Technology Yokohama Japan
  • M. Satoh
    Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute The University of Tokyo Kashiwa Japan

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<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>The termination of the superintense 1997/1998 El Niño was extraordinarily abrupt. The May 1998 Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO), a massive complex of stormy tropical clouds, is among possible contributors to the abrupt termination. Despite having been sensationally proposed 18 years ago, the role of the MJO remained controversial and speculative because of the difficulty of sufficiently simulating the El Niño and MJO simultaneously. An ensemble simulation series using a newly developed, fully ocean‐coupled version of a global cloud system resolving numerical model replicated the specific atmosphere and ocean conditions of May 1998 in unprecedented detail, extending the prediction skill of the MJO to 46 days. Simulation ensemble members with stronger MJO activities over the Maritime Continent experienced quicker sea surface temperature drop in the eastern Pacific, confirming that the easterly winds associated with the remote MJO accelerated ocean upwelling to abruptly terminate the El Niño.</jats:p>

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