Emerging Market Currency Excess Returns

  • Stephen Gilmore
    Head of Strategy, Future Fund, Locked Bag 20010, Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia.
  • Fumio Hayashi
    Graduate School of International Corporate Strategy, Hitotsubashi University, National Center of Sciences, 2-1-2 Hitotsubashi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101-8439, Japan.

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説明

<jats:p> We consider the excess return from 20 internationally tradable emerging market (EM) currencies against the US dollar. It has two contributions. First, we document stylized facts about EM currencies. EM currencies have provided significant equity-like excess returns against major currencies, but with low volatility. Picking EM currencies with a relatively high forward premium raises the portfolio return substantially. Second, our calculation incorporates institutional features of the foreign exchange market, such as lags in settling spot contracts, FX swaps, and bid/offer spreads. Transaction costs arising from bid/offer spreads are less than one-fifth of what is typically presumed in the literature. (JEL C58, F31, G15) </jats:p>

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