Predicting Future Threats to the Native Vegetation of Robinson Crusoe Island, Juan Fernandez Archipelago, Chile

<jats:p><jats:bold>Abstract: </jats:bold> <jats:italic>The Juan Fernandez Archipelago, a Chilean national park and biosphere reserve, is 700 km west of continental Chile. Invasive plant species pose major threats to the native, highly endemic vegetation, especially on Robinson Crusoe Island (Mas a Tierra), where there is a permanent settlement. We used historical and recent vegetation map data as well as recent vegetational point data to reconstruct vegetational changes on the island since the early twentieth century. In addition, we used logistic regression models with environmental variables or their surrogates (elevation, solar radiation, topographic similarity index, slope position) to estimate the potential distributions of the worst invaders. Native vegetation has been affected most severely by</jats:italic> Acaena argentea<jats:italic>,</jats:italic> Aristotelia chilensis<jats:italic>,</jats:italic> Rubus ulmifolius<jats:italic>, and</jats:italic> Ugni molinae<jats:italic>, leading to a significant decrease of endemic plants in the montane forests and native shrublands. The native forest has decreased by approximately one‐third. The area affected by</jats:italic> Aristotelia chilensis <jats:italic>increased from 6.5% to 14% of the total island area.</jats:italic> Ugni molinae<jats:italic>, once rare, is now abundant (4.6%), as is</jats:italic> Acaena <jats:italic>(11.9%).</jats:italic> Rubus ulmifolius<jats:italic>, not present 80 years ago, now covers about 7% of the island's surface. The distributions of all studied species except</jats:italic> Rubus ulmifolius <jats:italic>are significantly (</jats:italic>p <jats:italic>< 0.05) controlled by the environmental factors we examined. Inferring from potential distributions of</jats:italic> Aristotelia chilensis <jats:italic>and</jats:italic> Ugni molinae<jats:italic>, 50% of the native montane forest could be invaded or replaced (with a probability of >60%) by these plants. Based on the invasion speed of the past 80 years, this would take another 80 years if conservation measures do not succeed.</jats:italic></jats:p>