The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems

  • Graciela L Kaminsky
    Department of Economics, George Washington University, Washington, DC 20052.
  • Carmen M Reinhart
    School of Public Affairs and Department of Economics, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, and the National Bureau of Economic Research.

説明

<jats:p> In the wake of the Mexican and Asian currency turmoil, the subject of financial crises has come to the forefront of academic and policy discussions. This paper analyzes the links between banking and currency crises. We find that: problems in the banking sector typically precede a currency crisis—the currency crisis deepens the banking crisis, activating a vicious spiral; financial liberalization often precedes banking crises. The anatomy of these episodes suggests that crises occur as the economy enters a recession, following a prolonged boom in economic activity that was fueled by credit, capital inflows, and accompanied by an overvalued currency. (JEL F30, F41) </jats:p>

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