抄録
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>It is well known that the number of goals in a football game follows a Poisson distribution very well. Therefore, the intensity parameters of Poisson distributions, followed by the number of goals gained/lost by a team, can be regarded as the indices of the offensive/defensive performance of the team. Teams belonging to a professional football league have many games throughout the season. The performances of such teams should be considered not to be constant throughout the season. A Poisson regression model with varying coefficients is proposed to analyze and visualize the time-varying performance indices of football teams. It is also applicable to estimating the performances up to the middle of a season, and estimated performances can be used to predict the future game’s outcome probabilities. These methods are demonstrated with the data of the Japanese professional football league.</jats:p>
収録刊行物
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- Japanese Journal of Statistics and Data Science
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Japanese Journal of Statistics and Data Science 5 (2), 885-898, 2022-08-12
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
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詳細情報 詳細情報について
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- CRID
- 1360298339396883968
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- ISSN
- 25208764
- 25208756
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- データソース種別
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- Crossref
- KAKEN