Long-Term Trends in Adult Mortality for U.S. Blacks and Whites: An Examination of Period- and Cohort-Based Changes

  • Ryan K. Masters
    Department of Sociology and Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado at Boulder, UCB 327 Ketchum 214, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
  • Robert A. Hummer
    Department of Sociology and Population Research Center, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA
  • Daniel A. Powers
    Department of Sociology and Population Research Center, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA
  • Audrey Beck
    Department of Sociology and Center for Health Equity Research and Policy, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, USA
  • Shih-Fan Lin
    Institute for Behavioral and Community Health (IBACH), San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, USA
  • Brian Karl Finch
    Department of Sociology and Southern California Population Research Center, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA

抄録

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Black–white differences in U.S. adult mortality have narrowed over the past five decades, but whether this narrowing unfolded on a period or cohort basis is unclear. The distinction has important implications for understanding the socioeconomic, public health, lifestyle, and medical mechanisms responsible for this narrowing. We use data from 1959 to 2009 and age-period-cohort (APC) models to examine period- and cohort-based changes in adult mortality for U.S. blacks and whites. We do so for all-cause mortality among persons aged 15–74 as well as for several underlying causes of death more pertinent for specific age groups. We find clear patterns of cohort-based reductions in mortality for both black men and women and white men and women. Recent cohort-based reductions in heart disease, stroke, lung cancer, female breast cancer, and other cancer mortality have been substantial and, save for breast cancer, have been especially pronounced for blacks. Period-based changes have also occurred and are especially pronounced for some causes of death. Period-based reductions in blacks’ and whites’ heart disease and stroke mortality are particularly impressive, as are recent period-based reductions in young men’s and women’s mortality from infectious diseases and homicide. These recent period changes are more pronounced among blacks. The substantial cohort-based trends in chronic disease mortality and recent period-based reductions for some causes of death suggest a continuing slow closure of the black-white mortality gap. However, we also uncover troubling signs of recent cohort-based increases in heart disease mortality for both blacks and whites.</jats:p>

収録刊行物

  • Demography

    Demography 51 (6), 2047-2073, 2014-11-18

    Duke University Press

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