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- Gergely Röst
- Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, 6720 Szeged, Hungary
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- Ferenc A. Bartha
- Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, 6720 Szeged, Hungary
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- Norbert Bogya
- Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, 6720 Szeged, Hungary
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- Péter Boldog
- Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, 6720 Szeged, Hungary
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- Attila Dénes
- Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, 6720 Szeged, Hungary
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- Tamás Ferenci
- Physiological Controls Research Center, Óbuda University, 1034 Budapest, Hungary
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- Krisztina J. Horváth
- Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, 6720 Szeged, Hungary
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- Attila Juhász
- Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, 6720 Szeged, Hungary
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- Csilla Nagy
- Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, 6720 Szeged, Hungary
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- Tamás Tekeli
- Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, 6720 Szeged, Hungary
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- Zsolt Vizi
- Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, 6720 Szeged, Hungary
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- Beatrix Oroszi
- Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, 6720 Szeged, Hungary
説明
<jats:p>COVID-19 epidemic has been suppressed in Hungary due to timely non-pharmaceutical interventions, prompting a considerable reduction in the number of contacts and transmission of the virus. This strategy was effective in preventing epidemic growth and reducing the incidence of COVID-19 to low levels. In this report, we present the first epidemiological and statistical analysis of the early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hungary. Then, we establish an age-structured compartmental model to explore alternative post-lockdown scenarios. We incorporate various factors, such as age-specific measures, seasonal effects, and spatial heterogeneity to project the possible peak size and disease burden of a COVID-19 epidemic wave after the current measures are relaxed.</jats:p>
収録刊行物
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- Viruses
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Viruses 12 (7), 708-, 2020-06-30
MDPI AG