Very Strong Atmospheric Methane Growth in the 4 Years 2014–2017: Implications for the Paris Agreement

  • E. G. Nisbet
    Department of Earth Sciences Royal Holloway, University of London Egham Surrey UK
  • M. R. Manning
    Climate Change Research Institute, School of Geography Environment and Earth Sciences Victoria University of Wellington Wellington New Zealand
  • E. J. Dlugokencky
    Earth System Research Laboratory, Global Monitoring Division US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Boulder CO USA
  • R. E. Fisher
    Department of Earth Sciences Royal Holloway, University of London Egham Surrey UK
  • D. Lowry
    Department of Earth Sciences Royal Holloway, University of London Egham Surrey UK
  • S. E. Michel
    Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research University of Colorado Boulder CO USA
  • C. Lund Myhre
    NILU‐Norwegian Institute for Air Research Kjeller Norway
  • S. M. Platt
    NILU‐Norwegian Institute for Air Research Kjeller Norway
  • G. Allen
    Centre for Atmospheric Science University of Manchester Manchester UK
  • P. Bousquet
    Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif‐sur‐Yvette Cedex France
  • R. Brownlow
    Energy and Sustainability Research Institute University of Groningen Groningen Netherlands
  • M. Cain
    Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment University of Oxford Oxford UK
  • J. L. France
    Department of Earth Sciences Royal Holloway, University of London Egham Surrey UK
  • O. Hermansen
    NILU‐Norwegian Institute for Air Research Kjeller Norway
  • R. Hossaini
    Lancaster Environment Centre Lancaster University Lancaster UK
  • A. E. Jones
    British Antarctic Survey Cambridge Cambs. UK
  • I. Levin
    Institut für Umweltphysik Heidelberg University Heidelberg Germany
  • A. C. Manning
    Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Norwich Norfolk UK
  • G. Myhre
    CICERO Centre for International Climate Research Oslo Norway
  • J. A. Pyle
    National Centre for Atmospheric Science, and Department of Chemistry University of Cambridge Cambridge UK
  • B. H. Vaughn
    Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research University of Colorado Boulder CO USA
  • N. J. Warwick
    National Centre for Atmospheric Science, and Department of Chemistry University of Cambridge Cambridge UK
  • J. W. C. White
    Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research University of Colorado Boulder CO USA

書誌事項

公開日
2019-03
権利情報
  • http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
DOI
  • 10.1029/2018gb006009
公開者
American Geophysical Union (AGU)

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説明

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p> Atmospheric methane grew very rapidly in 2014 (12.7 ± 0.5 ppb/year), 2015 (10.1 ± 0.7 ppb/year), 2016 (7.0 ± 0.7 ppb/year), and 2017 (7.7 ± 0.7 ppb/year), at rates not observed since the 1980s. The increase in the methane burden began in 2007, with the mean global mole fraction in remote surface background air rising from about 1,775 ppb in 2006 to 1,850 ppb in 2017. Simultaneously the <jats:sup>13</jats:sup> C/ <jats:sup>12</jats:sup> C isotopic ratio (expressed as δ <jats:sup>13</jats:sup> C <jats:sub>CH4</jats:sub> ) has shifted, now trending negative for more than a decade. The causes of methane's recent mole fraction increase are therefore either a change in the relative proportions (and totals) of emissions from biogenic and thermogenic and pyrogenic sources, especially in the tropics and subtropics, or a decline in the atmospheric sink of methane, or both. Unfortunately, with limited measurement data sets, it is not currently possible to be more definitive. The climate warming impact of the observed methane increase over the past decade, if continued at >5 ppb/year in the coming decades, is sufficient to challenge the Paris Agreement, which requires sharp cuts in the atmospheric methane burden. However, anthropogenic methane emissions are relatively very large and thus offer attractive targets for rapid reduction, which are essential if the Paris Agreement aims are to be attained. </jats:p>

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