Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States
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- Estee Y. Cramer
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003
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- Evan L. Ray
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003
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- Velma K. Lopez
- COVID-19 Response, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Atlanta, GA 30333
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- Johannes Bracher
- Chair of Econometrics and Statistics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, 76185 Karlsruhe, Germany
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- Andrea Brennen
- IQT Labs, In-Q-Tel, Waltham, MA 02451
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- Alvaro J. Castro Rivadeneira
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003
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- Aaron Gerding
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003
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- Tilmann Gneiting
- Computational Statistics Group, Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies, 69118 Heidelberg, Germany
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- Katie H. House
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003
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- Yuxin Huang
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003
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- Dasuni Jayawardena
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003
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- Abdul H. Kanji
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003
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- Ayush Khandelwal
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003
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- Khoa Le
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003
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- Anja Mühlemann
- Institute of Mathematical Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Bern, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland
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- Jarad Niemi
- Department of Statistics, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011
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- Apurv Shah
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003
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- Ariane Stark
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003
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- Yijin Wang
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003
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- Nutcha Wattanachit
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003
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- Martha W. Zorn
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003
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- Youyang Gu
- Unaffiliated, New York, NY 10016
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- Sansiddh Jain
- Wadhwani Institute of Artificial Intelligence, Andheri East, Mumbai, 400093, India
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- Nayana Bannur
- Wadhwani Institute of Artificial Intelligence, Andheri East, Mumbai, 400093, India
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- Ayush Deva
- Wadhwani Institute of Artificial Intelligence, Andheri East, Mumbai, 400093, India
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- Mihir Kulkarni
- Wadhwani Institute of Artificial Intelligence, Andheri East, Mumbai, 400093, India
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- Srujana Merugu
- Wadhwani Institute of Artificial Intelligence, Andheri East, Mumbai, 400093, India
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- Alpan Raval
- Wadhwani Institute of Artificial Intelligence, Andheri East, Mumbai, 400093, India
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- Siddhant Shingi
- Wadhwani Institute of Artificial Intelligence, Andheri East, Mumbai, 400093, India
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- Avtansh Tiwari
- Wadhwani Institute of Artificial Intelligence, Andheri East, Mumbai, 400093, India
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- Jerome White
- Wadhwani Institute of Artificial Intelligence, Andheri East, Mumbai, 400093, India
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- Neil F. Abernethy
- University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98109
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- Spencer Woody
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712
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- Maytal Dahan
- Texas Advanced Computing Center, Austin, TX 78758
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- Spencer Fox
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712
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- Kelly Gaither
- Texas Advanced Computing Center, Austin, TX 78758
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- Michael Lachmann
- Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM 87501
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- Lauren Ancel Meyers
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712
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- James G. Scott
- Department of Information, Risk, and Operations Management, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712
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- Mauricio Tec
- Department of Statistics and Data Sciences, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712
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- Ajitesh Srivastava
- Ming Hsieh Department of Computer and Electrical Engineering, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089
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- Glover E. George
- US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS 39180
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- Jeffrey C. Cegan
- US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Concord, MA 01742
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- Ian D. Dettwiller
- US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS 39180
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- William P. England
- US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS 39180
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- Matthew W. Farthing
- US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS 39180
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- Robert H. Hunter
- US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS 39180
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- Brandon Lafferty
- US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS 39180
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- Igor Linkov
- US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Concord, MA 01742
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- Michael L. Mayo
- US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS 39180
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- Matthew D. Parno
- US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Hanover, NH 03755
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- Michael A. Rowland
- US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS 39180
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- Benjamin D. Trump
- US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Concord, MA 01742
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- Yanli Zhang-James
- Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, State University of New York Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, NY 13210
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- Samuel Chen
- School of Medicine, State University of New York Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, NY 13210
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- Stephen V. Faraone
- Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, State University of New York Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, NY 13210
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- Jonathan Hess
- Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, State University of New York Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, NY 13210
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- Christopher P. Morley
- Department of Public Health & Preventive Medicine, State University of New York Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, NY 13210
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- Asif Salekin
- Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Syracuse University, Syracuse, NY 13207
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- Dongliang Wang
- Department of Public Health & Preventive Medicine, State University of New York Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, NY 13210
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- Sabrina M. Corsetti
- Department of Physics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109
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- Thomas M. Baer
- Department of Physics, Trinity University, San Antonio, TX 78212
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- Marisa C. Eisenberg
- Department of Complex Systems, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109
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- Karl Falb
- Department of Physics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109
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- Yitao Huang
- Department of Physics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109
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- Emily T. Martin
- School of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109
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- Ella McCauley
- Department of Physics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109
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- Robert L. Myers
- Department of Physics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109
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- Tom Schwarz
- Department of Physics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109
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- Daniel Sheldon
- College of Information and Computer Sciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003
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- Graham Casey Gibson
- School of Public Health and Health Sciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003
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- Rose Yu
- Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of California, San Diego, CA 92093
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- Liyao Gao
- Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98185
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- Yian Ma
- Halıcıoğlu Data Science Institute, University of California, San Diego, CA 92093
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- Dongxia Wu
- Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of California, San Diego, CA 92093
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- Xifeng Yan
- Department of Computer Science, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106
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- Xiaoyong Jin
- Department of Computer Science, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106
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- Yu-Xiang Wang
- Department of Computer Science, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106
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- YangQuan Chen
- Mechatronics, Embedded Systems and Automation Lab, Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of California, Merced, CA 95301
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- Lihong Guo
- Jilin University, Changchun City, Jilin Province, 130012, People's Republic of China
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- Yanting Zhao
- University of Science and Technology of China, Heifei, Anhui, 230027, People's Republic of China
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- Quanquan Gu
- Department of Computer Science, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095
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- Jinghui Chen
- Department of Computer Science, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095
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- Lingxiao Wang
- Department of Computer Science, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095
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- Pan Xu
- Department of Computer Science, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095
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- Weitong Zhang
- Department of Computer Science, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095
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- Difan Zou
- Department of Computer Science, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095
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- Hannah Biegel
- Department of Mathematics, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721
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- Joceline Lega
- Department of Mathematics, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721
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- Steve McConnell
- Construx, Bellevue, WA 98004
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- V. P. Nagraj
- Quality Assurance and Data Science, Signature Science, LLC, Charlottesville, VA 22911
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- Stephanie L. Guertin
- Quality Assurance and Data Science, Signature Science, LLC, Charlottesville, VA 22911
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- Christopher Hulme-Lowe
- Quality Assurance and Data Science, Signature Science, LLC, Austin, TX 78759
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- Stephen D. Turner
- Quality Assurance and Data Science, Signature Science, LLC, Charlottesville, VA 22911
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- Yunfeng Shi
- Department of Materials Science and Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY 12309
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- Xuegang Ban
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195
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- Robert Walraven
- Unaffiliated, Davis, CA 95616
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- Qi-Jun Hong
- School for Engineering of Matter, Transport and Energy, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287
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- Stanley Kong
- Manhasset Secondary School, Manhasset, NY 11030
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- Axel van de Walle
- School of Engineering, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912
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- James A. Turtle
- Infectious Disease Group, Predictive Science, Inc, San Diego, CA 92121
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- Michal Ben-Nun
- Infectious Disease Group, Predictive Science, Inc, San Diego, CA 92121
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- Steven Riley
- Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College, W2 1PG London, United Kingdom
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- Pete Riley
- Infectious Disease Group, Predictive Science, Inc, San Diego, CA 92121
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- Ugur Koyluoglu
- Financial Services, Oliver Wyman, New York, NY 10036
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- David DesRoches
- Oliver Wyman Digital, Oliver Wyman, Boston, MA 02110
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- Pedro Forli
- Oliver Wyman Digital, Oliver Wyman, Sao Paolo, Brazil 04711-904
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- Bruce Hamory
- Health & Life Sciences, Oliver Wyman, Boston, MA 02110
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- Christina Kyriakides
- Oliver Wyman Digital, Oliver Wyman, New York, NY 10036
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- Helen Leis
- Health & Life Sciences, Oliver Wyman, New York, NY 10036
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- John Milliken
- Financial Services, Oliver Wyman, New York, NY 10036
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- Michael Moloney
- Financial Services, Oliver Wyman, New York, NY 10036
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- James Morgan
- Financial Services, Oliver Wyman, New York, NY 10036
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- Ninad Nirgudkar
- Core Consultant Group, Oliver Wyman, New York, NY 10036
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- Gokce Ozcan
- Financial Services, Oliver Wyman, New York, NY 10036
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- Noah Piwonka
- Health & Life Sciences, Oliver Wyman, New York, NY 10036
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- Matt Ravi
- Core Consultant Group, Oliver Wyman, New York, NY 10036
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- Chris Schrader
- Health & Life Sciences, Oliver Wyman, New York, NY 10036
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- Elizabeth Shakhnovich
- Health & Life Sciences, Oliver Wyman, New York, NY 10036
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- Daniel Siegel
- Financial Services, Oliver Wyman, New York, NY 10036
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- Ryan Spatz
- Core Consultant Group, Oliver Wyman, New York, NY 10036
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- Chris Stiefeling
- Financial Services, Oliver Wyman Digital, Toronto, ON, Canada M5J 0A1
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- Barrie Wilkinson
- Financial Services, Oliver Wyman, London, UK W1U 8EW
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- Alexander Wong
- Oliver Wyman Digital, Oliver Wyman, New York, NY 10036
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- Sean Cavany
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556
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- Guido España
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556
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- Sean Moore
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556
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- Rachel Oidtman
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556
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- Alex Perkins
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556
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- David Kraus
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Masaryk University, 61137 Brno, Czech Republic
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- Andrea Kraus
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Masaryk University, 61137 Brno, Czech Republic
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- Zhifeng Gao
- Microsoft, Redmond, WA 98029
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- Jiang Bian
- Microsoft, Redmond, WA 98029
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- Wei Cao
- Microsoft, Redmond, WA 98029
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- Juan Lavista Ferres
- Microsoft, Redmond, WA 98029
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- Chaozhuo Li
- Microsoft, Redmond, WA 98029
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- Tie-Yan Liu
- Microsoft, Redmond, WA 98029
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- Xing Xie
- Microsoft, Redmond, WA 98029
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- Shun Zhang
- Microsoft, Redmond, WA 98029
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- Shun Zheng
- Microsoft, Redmond, WA 98029
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- Alessandro Vespignani
- Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation, Turin, 10133, Italy
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- Matteo Chinazzi
- Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115
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- Jessica T. Davis
- Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115
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- Kunpeng Mu
- Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115
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- Ana Pastore y Piontti
- Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115
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- Xinyue Xiong
- Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115
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- Andrew Zheng
- Operations Research Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Cambridge, MA 02139
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- Jackie Baek
- Operations Research Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Cambridge, MA 02139
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- Vivek Farias
- Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02142
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- Andreea Georgescu
- Operations Research Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Cambridge, MA 02139
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- Retsef Levi
- Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02142
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- Deeksha Sinha
- Operations Research Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Cambridge, MA 02139
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- Joshua Wilde
- Operations Research Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Cambridge, MA 02139
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- Georgia Perakis
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02142
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- Mohammed Amine Bennouna
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02142
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- David Nze-Ndong
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02142
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- Divya Singhvi
- Technology, Operations and Statistics (TOPS) group, Stern School of Business, New York University, New York, NY 10012
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- Ioannis Spantidakis
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02142
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- Leann Thayaparan
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02142
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- Asterios Tsiourvas
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02142
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- Arnab Sarker
- Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139
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- Ali Jadbabaie
- Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139
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- Devavrat Shah
- Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139
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- Nicolas Della Penna
- Laboratory for Computational Physiology, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139
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- Leo A. Celi
- Laboratory for Computational Physiology, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139
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- Saketh Sundar
- River Hill High School, Clarksville, MD 21029
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- Russ Wolfinger
- JMP Life Sciences, SAS Institute Inc, Cary, NC 27513
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- Dave Osthus
- Statistical Sciences Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545
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- Lauren Castro
- Information Systems and Modeling Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545
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- Geoffrey Fairchild
- Information Systems and Modeling Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545
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- Isaac Michaud
- Statistical Sciences Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545
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- Dean Karlen
- Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, V8W 2Y2, Canada
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- Matt Kinsey
- Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, MD 20723
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- Luke C. Mullany
- Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, MD 20723
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- Kaitlin Rainwater-Lovett
- Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, MD 20723
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- Lauren Shin
- Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, MD 20723
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- Katharine Tallaksen
- Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, MD 20723
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- Shelby Wilson
- Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, MD 20723
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- Elizabeth C. Lee
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21215
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- Juan Dent
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21215
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- Kyra H. Grantz
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21215
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- Alison L. Hill
- Institute for Computational Medicine, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21218
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- Joshua Kaminsky
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21215
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- Kathryn Kaminsky
- Unaffiliated, Baltimore, MD 21205
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- Lindsay T. Keegan
- Division of Epidemiology, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84108
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- Stephen A. Lauer
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21215
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- Joseph C. Lemaitre
- Laboratory of Ecohydrology, School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland
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- Justin Lessler
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21215
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- Hannah R. Meredith
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21215
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- Javier Perez-Saez
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21215
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- Sam Shah
- Unaffiliated, San Francisco, CA 94122
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- Claire P. Smith
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21215
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- Shaun A. Truelove
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21215
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- Josh Wills
- Unaffiliated, San Francisco, CA 94122
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- Maximilian Marshall
- Department of Civil and Systems Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218
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- Lauren Gardner
- Department of Civil and Systems Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218
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- Kristen Nixon
- Department of Civil and Systems Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218
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- John C. Burant
- Unaffiliated, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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- Lily Wang
- Department of Statistics, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011
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- Lei Gao
- Department of Finance, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011
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- Zhiling Gu
- Department of Statistics, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011
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- Myungjin Kim
- Department of Statistics, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011
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- Xinyi Li
- School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, SC 29634
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- Guannan Wang
- Department of Mathematics, College of William & Mary, Williamsburg, VA 23187
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- Yueying Wang
- Department of Statistics, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011
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- Shan Yu
- Department of Statistics, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22904
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- Robert C. Reiner
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195
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- Ryan Barber
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195
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- Emmanuela Gakidou
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195
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- Simon I. Hay
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195
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- Steve Lim
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195
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- Chris Murray
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195
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- David Pigott
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195
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- Heidi L. Gurung
- Emerging Technologies, IEM, Inc., Bel Air, MD 21015
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- Prasith Baccam
- Emerging Technologies, IEM, Inc., Bel Air, MD 21015
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- Steven A. Stage
- Emerging Technologies, IEM, Inc., Baton Rouge, LA 70809
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- Bradley T. Suchoski
- Emerging Technologies, IEM, Inc., Bel Air, MD 21015
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- B. Aditya Prakash
- College of Computing, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30308
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- Bijaya Adhikari
- Department of Computer Science, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242
-
- Jiaming Cui
- College of Computing, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30308
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- Alexander Rodríguez
- College of Computing, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30308
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- Anika Tabassum
- Department of Computer Science, Virginia Tech, Falls Church, VA 22043
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- Jiajia Xie
- College of Computing, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30308
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- Pinar Keskinocak
- H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, 30332
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- John Asplund
- Advanced Data Analytics, Metron, Inc., Reston, VA 20190
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- Arden Baxter
- H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, 30332
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- Buse Eylul Oruc
- H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, 30332
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- Nicoleta Serban
- H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, 30332
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- Sercan O. Arik
- Google Cloud, Sunnyvale, CA 94089
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- Mike Dusenberry
- Google Cloud, Sunnyvale, CA 94089
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- Arkady Epshteyn
- Google Cloud, Sunnyvale, CA 94089
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- Elli Kanal
- Google Cloud, Sunnyvale, CA 94089
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- Long T. Le
- Google Cloud, Sunnyvale, CA 94089
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- Chun-Liang Li
- Google Cloud, Sunnyvale, CA 94089
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- Tomas Pfister
- Google Cloud, Sunnyvale, CA 94089
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- Dario Sava
- Google Cloud, Sunnyvale, CA 94089
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- Rajarishi Sinha
- Google Cloud, Sunnyvale, CA 94089
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- Thomas Tsai
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138
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- Nate Yoder
- Google Cloud, Sunnyvale, CA 94089
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- Jinsung Yoon
- Google Cloud, Sunnyvale, CA 94089
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- Leyou Zhang
- Google Cloud, Sunnyvale, CA 94089
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- Sam Abbott
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, WC1E 7HT London, United Kingdom
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- Nikos I. Bosse
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, WC1E 7HT London, United Kingdom
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- Sebastian Funk
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, WC1E 7HT London, United Kingdom
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- Joel Hellewell
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, WC1E 7HT London, United Kingdom
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- Sophie R. Meakin
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, WC1E 7HT London, United Kingdom
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- Katharine Sherratt
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, WC1E 7HT London, United Kingdom
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- Mingyuan Zhou
- McCombs School of Business, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712
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- Rahi Kalantari
- Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712
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- Teresa K. Yamana
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032
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- Sen Pei
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032
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- Jeffrey Shaman
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032
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- Michael L. Li
- Operations Research Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Cambridge, MA 02139
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- Dimitris Bertsimas
- Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02142
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- Omar Skali Lami
- Operations Research Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Cambridge, MA 02139
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- Saksham Soni
- Operations Research Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Cambridge, MA 02139
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- Hamza Tazi Bouardi
- Operations Research Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Cambridge, MA 02139
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- Turgay Ayer
- H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, 30332
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- Madeline Adee
- Radiology-Institute for Technology Assessment, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA 02114
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- Jagpreet Chhatwal
- Radiology-Institute for Technology Assessment, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA 02114
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- Ozden O. Dalgic
- Health Economic Modeling, Value Analytics Labs, 34776 İstanbul, Turkey
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- Mary A. Ladd
- Radiology-Institute for Technology Assessment, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA 02114
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- Benjamin P. Linas
- Department of Medicine, Section of Infectious Diseases, Boston University School of Medicine, Boston, MA 02118
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- Peter Mueller
- Radiology-Institute for Technology Assessment, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA 02114
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- Jade Xiao
- H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, 30332
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- Yuanjia Wang
- Department of Biostatistics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032
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- Qinxia Wang
- Department of Biostatistics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032
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- Shanghong Xie
- Department of Biostatistics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032
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- Donglin Zeng
- Department of Biostatistics, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599
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- Alden Green
- Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213
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- Jacob Bien
- Marshall School of Business, Department of Data Sciences and Operations (DSO), University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089
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- Logan Brooks
- Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213
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- Addison J. Hu
- Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213
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- Maria Jahja
- Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213
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- Daniel McDonald
- Department of Statistics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada
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- Balasubramanian Narasimhan
- Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305
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- Collin Politsch
- Machine Learning Department, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213
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- Samyak Rajanala
- Department of Statistics, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305
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- Aaron Rumack
- Machine Learning Department, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213
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- Noah Simon
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195
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- Ryan J. Tibshirani
- Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213
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- Rob Tibshirani
- Department of Statistics, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305
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- Valerie Ventura
- Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213
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- Larry Wasserman
- Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213
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- Eamon B. O’Dea
- Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602
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- John M. Drake
- Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602
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- Robert Pagano
- Unaffiliated, Tucson, AZ 85704
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- Quoc T. Tran
- Catalog Data Science, Walmart Inc., Sunnyvale, CA 94085
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- Lam Si Tung Ho
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, B3H 4R2, Canada
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- Huong Huynh
- Virtual Power System Inc, Milpitas, CA 95035
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- Jo W. Walker
- COVID-19 Response, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Atlanta, GA 30333
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- Rachel B. Slayton
- COVID-19 Response, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Atlanta, GA 30333
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- Michael A. Johansson
- COVID-19 Response, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Atlanta, GA 30333
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- Matthew Biggerstaff
- COVID-19 Response, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Atlanta, GA 30333
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- Nicholas G. Reich
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003
抄録
<jats:p> Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub ( <jats:ext-link xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://covid19forecasthub.org/">https://covid19forecasthub.org/</jats:ext-link> ) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks. </jats:p>
収録刊行物
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- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119 (15), 2022-04-08
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences