Energy mix for net zero CO<sub>2</sub> emissions by 2050 in Japan

  • Takashi Otsuki
    Yokohama National University 79‐1, Tokiwadai, Hodogaya Yokohama Kanagawa 240‐8501 Japan
  • Hideaki Obane
    The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan Inui Bldg. Kachidoki, 1‐13‐1, Kachidoki Chuo Tokyo 104‐0054 Japan
  • Yasuaki Kawakami
    The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan Inui Bldg. Kachidoki, 1‐13‐1, Kachidoki Chuo Tokyo 104‐0054 Japan
  • Kei Shimogori
    The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan Inui Bldg. Kachidoki, 1‐13‐1, Kachidoki Chuo Tokyo 104‐0054 Japan
  • Yuji Mizuno
    The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan Inui Bldg. Kachidoki, 1‐13‐1, Kachidoki Chuo Tokyo 104‐0054 Japan
  • Soichi Morimoto
    Ritsumeikan Asia Pacific University 1‐1, Jumonjibaru Beppu Oita 874‐8577 Japan
  • Yuhji Matsuo
    Ritsumeikan Asia Pacific University 1‐1, Jumonjibaru Beppu Oita 874‐8577 Japan

書誌事項

タイトル別名
  • An analysis considering siting constraints on variable renewable energy

抄録

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>This study investigated cost‐effective energy strategies for realizing net zero CO<jats:sub>2</jats:sub> emissions in Japan by 2050, employing an energy system optimization model with hourly electricity balances. The detailed temporal resolution enables the model to capture the intermittency of variable renewable energy (VRE) and the costs of system integration measures. Siting constraints on VRE, such as prohibiting solar PV and onshore wind developments in forests and offshore wind developments inside fishery rights areas, are incorporated in the model to reflect the environmental protection and social acceptance perspectives. Simulation results imply that a well‐balanced power generation mix, combining renewables, nuclear, gas‐fired with carbon capture and storage, as well as ammonia‐fired, would contribute to curbing mitigation costs. In contrast, a simulation case with very high VRE penetration poses economic challenges. The average shadow price of electricity in 2050 in a 100% renewables case (RE100) is projected to be more than doubled from a reference case which is based on middle‐of‐the‐road assumptions. Marginal CO<jats:sub>2</jats:sub> abatement cost in 2050 increases from 49,200 JPY/tCO<jats:sub>2</jats:sub> in the reference case to 75,300 JPY/tCO<jats:sub>2</jats:sub> in the RE100 case. The economic viability of high VRE penetration is improved by relaxing the siting constraints, although it may raise environmental and social concerns.</jats:p>

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