Spatiotemporal pattern of COVID-19 spread in Brazil

  • Marcia C. Castro
    Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
  • Sun Kim
    Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
  • Lorena Barberia
    Department of Political Science, University of São Paulo (USP), Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil.
  • Ana Freitas Ribeiro
    Universidade Nove de Julho, São Paulo, SP, Brazil.
  • Susie Gurzenda
    Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
  • Karina Braga Ribeiro
    Faculdade de Ciências Médicas da Santa Casa de São Paulo, Department of Collective Health, São Paulo, SP, Brazil.
  • Erin Abbott
    Center for Geographical Analysis, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.
  • Jeffrey Blossom
    Center for Geographical Analysis, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.
  • Beatriz Rache
    Instituto de Estudos para Políticas de Saúde (IEPS), São Paulo, SP, Brazil.
  • Burton H. Singer
    Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.

抄録

<jats:title>Unmitigated spread in Brazil</jats:title> <jats:p> Despite an extensive network of primary care availability, Brazil has suffered profoundly during the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic. Using daily data from state health offices, Castro <jats:italic>et al.</jats:italic> analyzed the pattern of spread of COVID-19 cases and deaths in the country from February to October 2020. Clusters of deaths before cases became apparent indicated unmitigated spread. SARS-CoV-2 circulated undetected in Brazil for more than a month as it spread north from Sã o Paulo. In Manaus, transmission reached unprecedented levels after a momentary respite in mid-2020. Faria <jats:italic>et al.</jats:italic> tracked the evolution of a new, more aggressive lineage called P.1, which has 17 mutations, including three (K417T, E484K, and N501Y) in the spike protein. After a period of accelerated evolution, this variant emerged in Brazil during November 2020. Coupled with the emergence of P.1, disease spread was accelerated by stark local inequalities and political upheaval, which compromised a prompt federal response. </jats:p> <jats:p> <jats:italic>Science</jats:italic> , abh1558 and abh2644, this issue p. <jats:related-article issue="6544" page="821" related-article-type="in-this-issue" vol="372">821</jats:related-article> and p. <jats:related-article issue="6544" page="815" related-article-type="in-this-issue" vol="372">815</jats:related-article> </jats:p>

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  • Science

    Science 372 (6544), 821-826, 2021-05-21

    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

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