Cycles and trends in solar irradiance and climate

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>How—indeed whether—the Sun's variable energy outputs influence Earth's climate has engaged scientific curiosity for more than a century. Early evidence accrued from correlations of assorted solar and climate indices, and from recognition that cycles near 11, 88 and 205 years are common in both the Sun and climate.<jats:ext-link xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="#bib1">1</jats:ext-link>, <jats:ext-link xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="#bib2">2</jats:ext-link> But until recently, an influence of solar variability on climate, whether through cycles or trends, was usually dismissed because climate simulations with (primarily) simple energy balance models indicated that responses to the decadal solar cycle would be so small as to be undetectable in observations.<jats:ext-link xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="#bib3">3</jats:ext-link> However, in the past decade modeling studies have found both resonant responses and positive feedbacks in the ocean‐atmosphere system that may amplify the response to solar irradiance variations.<jats:ext-link xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="#bib4">4</jats:ext-link>, <jats:ext-link xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="#bib5">5</jats:ext-link> Today, solar cycles and trends are recognized as important components of natural climate variability on decadal to centennial time scales. Understanding solar‐terrestrial linkages is requisite for the comprehensive understanding of Earth's evolving environment. The attribution of present‐day climate change, interpretation of changes prior to the industrial epoch, and forecast of future decadal climate change necessitate quantitative understanding of how, when, where, and why natural variability, including by the Sun, may exceed, obscure or mitigate anthropogenic changes. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.</jats:p><jats:p>This article is categorized under: <jats:list list-type="explicit-label"> <jats:list-item><jats:p>Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Climate Forcing</jats:p></jats:list-item> </jats:list> </jats:p>