A New Perspective for Future Precipitation Change from Intense Extratropical Cyclones

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  • C. Kodama
    Japan Agency for Marine‐Earth Science and Technology Yokohama Japan
  • B. Stevens
    Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg Germany
  • T. Mauritsen
    Department of Meteorology Stockholm University Stockholm Sweden
  • T. Seiki
    Japan Agency for Marine‐Earth Science and Technology Yokohama Japan
  • M. Satoh
    Japan Agency for Marine‐Earth Science and Technology Yokohama Japan

書誌事項

公開日
2019-11-13
資源種別
journal article
権利情報
  • http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
DOI
  • 10.1029/2019gl084001
公開者
American Geophysical Union (AGU)

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説明

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Extratropical cyclones, major contributors to precipitation in the midlatitudes, comprise mesoscale fronts and fine‐scale convective storms. Intense oceanic cyclones pose natural hazards, making reliable projections of their changes with global warming of great interest. Here, we analyze the first ever global climate simulations to resolve such mesoscale dynamics of extratropical cyclones. The present‐day structure, frequency, and precipitation of the oceanic extratropical cyclones compare well with reanalyses and new satellite datasets that resolve the multiscale cloud‐precipitation system. Simulated precipitation from intense oceanic cyclones increases at a rate of 7%/K<jats:sup>1</jats:sup>, following Clausius‐Clapeyron, with warming. The same scaling is apparent also in the interhemispheric contrast, suggesting that the latter could serve as a predictor of the former. Projected changes in precipitation from intense oceanic cyclones with warming may thus be testable using a reliable global observation network of precipitation in the present day.</jats:p>

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