The exacerbation of Ebola outbreaks by conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
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- Chad R. Wells
- Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06520;
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- Abhishek Pandey
- Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06520;
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- Martial L. Ndeffo Mbah
- Department of Veterinary Integrative Biosciences, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843;
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- Bernard-A. Gaüzère
- Centre René Labusquière, Department of Tropical Medicine and Clinical International Health, University of Bordeaux, 33076 Bordeaux, France;
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- Denis Malvy
- Centre René Labusquière, Department of Tropical Medicine and Clinical International Health, University of Bordeaux, 33076 Bordeaux, France;
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- Burton H. Singer
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32610
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- Alison P. Galvani
- Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06520;
抄録
<jats:title>Significance</jats:title> <jats:p>There is limited understanding of what ramifications conflict events have on disease transmission and control in regions plagued by civil unrest and violence. Furthermore, the multifaceted nature of the conflict events during an epidemic is yet to be characterized. Using conflict data, ethnographic appraisal, and a mathematical model, we provide a descriptive timeline of the events during the ongoing Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. We quantified the unrest preceding a conflict event and its subsequent impact on control activities to demonstrate how conflict events are contributing to the persistence of the epidemic. Our model framework can be extended to other infectious diseases in areas that have experienced chronic conflict and violence.</jats:p>
収録刊行物
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- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 116 (48), 24366-24372, 2019-10-21
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences