Demographic Variability, Vaccination, and the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Rotavirus Epidemics
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- Virginia E. Pitzer
- Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA 16801, USA.
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- Cécile Viboud
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA.
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- Lone Simonsen
- School of Public Health and Health Services, George Washington University, Washington, DC 20052, USA.
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- Claudia Steiner
- Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project, Center for Delivery, Organization and Markets, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Rockville, MD 20850, USA.
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- Catherine A. Panozzo
- Epidemiology Branch, Division of Viral Diseases, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30333, USA.
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- Wladimir J. Alonso
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA.
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- Mark A. Miller
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA.
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- Roger I. Glass
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA.
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- John W. Glasser
- Epidemiology Branch, Division of Viral Diseases, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30333, USA.
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- Umesh D. Parashar
- Epidemiology Branch, Division of Viral Diseases, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30333, USA.
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- Bryan T. Grenfell
- Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA 16801, USA.
Description
<jats:title>Ecology of Diarrhea</jats:title> <jats:p> Rotavirus is an important cause of morbidity and mortality globally, and, although the infection takes a terrible toll on infant lives, its epidemiology is rather poorly known. New vaccines have become available and are being introduced in the United States prior to global rollout, but they may have some unexpected effects on disease dynamics. <jats:bold> Pitzer <jats:italic>et al.</jats:italic> </jats:bold> (p. <jats:related-article xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" ext-link-type="doi" page="290" related-article-type="in-this-issue" vol="325" xlink:href="10.1126/science.1172330">290</jats:related-article> ; see the Perspective by <jats:bold> <jats:related-article xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" ext-link-type="doi" issue="5938" page="274" related-article-type="in-this-issue" vol="325" xlink:href="10.1126/science.1177475">Medley and Nokes</jats:related-article> </jats:bold> ) analyzed data and developed models describing the epidemiology of rotavirus before and during adoption of the vaccine. Ecological analysis showed that the birth rate predicted the timing of epidemics much better than climatic variables and that shifts in birth rates explained changes over the years. But as increasing numbers of infants are vaccinated, the pool of susceptible individuals in the population will be reduced, which will affect the annual waves of geographic spread of rotavirus. </jats:p>
Journal
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- Science
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Science 325 (5938), 290-294, 2009-07-17
American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
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Details 詳細情報について
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- CRID
- 1361699994099744640
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- ISSN
- 10959203
- 00368075
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- Data Source
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- Crossref