Probabilistic Earthquake Scenarios: Extending Risk Analysis Methodologies to Spatially Distributed Systems
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- Stephanie E. Chang
- Department of Geography Box 353550, University of Washington Seattle WA 98195‐3550
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- Masanobu Shinozuka
- Department of Civil Engineering University of Southern California Los Angeles CA 90089‐2531
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- James E. Moore
- Department of Civil Engineering and School of Policy, Planning, and Development University of Southern California Los Angeles CA 90089‐2531
書誌事項
- 公開日
- 2000-08
- 権利情報
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- http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor
- http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/tdm_license_1.1
- DOI
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- 10.1193/1.1586127
- 公開者
- Wiley
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説明
<jats:p>This paper proposes a methodology by which probabilistic risk analysis methods can be extended to the assessment of urban lifeline systems. Probabilistic hazard information is commonly used for site‐specific analysis. However, for such systems as highway networks, electric power grids, and regional health care delivery systems, the spatial correlation between earthquake ground motion across many sites is important in determining system functionality. The methodology developed in this paper first identifies a limited set of deterministic earthquake scenarios and evaluates infrastructure system‐wide performance in each. It then assigns hazard‐consistent probabilities to the scenarios in order to approximate the regional seismicity. The resulting probabilistic scenarios indicate the likelihood of exceeding various levels of system performance degradation. A demonstration for the Los Angeles study area highway network suggests that there is roughly a 50% probability of exceedance of Northridge‐level disruption in 50 years. This methodology provides a means for selecting representative earthquake scenarios for response or mitigation planning.</jats:p>
収録刊行物
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- Earthquake Spectra
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Earthquake Spectra 16 (3), 557-572, 2000-08
Wiley