Winter climate change and coastal wetland foundation species: salt marshes vs. mangrove forests in the southeastern United States

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>We live in an era of unprecedented ecological change in which ecologists and natural resource managers are increasingly challenged to anticipate and prepare for the ecological effects of future global change. In this study, we investigated the potential effect of winter climate change upon salt marsh and mangrove forest foundation species in the southeastern <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">United States</jats:styled-content>. Our research addresses the following three questions: (1) What is the relationship between winter climate and the presence and abundance of mangrove forests relative to salt marshes; (2) How vulnerable are salt marshes to winter climate change‐induced mangrove forest range expansion; and (3) What is the potential future distribution and relative abundance of mangrove forests under alternative winter climate change scenarios? We developed simple winter climate‐based models to predict mangrove forest distribution and relative abundance using observed winter temperature data (1970–2000) and mangrove forest and salt marsh habitat data. Our results identify winter climate thresholds for salt marsh–mangrove forest interactions and highlight coastal areas in the southeastern <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">United States</jats:styled-content> (e.g., <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">T</jats:styled-content>exas, <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">L</jats:styled-content>ouisiana, and parts of <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">F</jats:styled-content>lorida) where relatively small changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme winter events could cause relatively dramatic landscape‐scale ecosystem structural and functional change in the form of poleward mangrove forest migration and salt marsh displacement. The ecological implications of these marsh‐to‐mangrove forest conversions are poorly understood, but would likely include changes for associated fish and wildlife populations and for the supply of some ecosystem goods and services.</jats:p>