The impact of COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions on the future dynamics of endemic infections
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- Rachel E. Baker
- Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544;
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- Sang Woo Park
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544;
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- Wenchang Yang
- Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544;
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- Gabriel A. Vecchi
- Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544;
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- C. Jessica E. Metcalf
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544;
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- Bryan T. Grenfell
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544;
抄録
<jats:title>Significance</jats:title> <jats:p>Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as social distancing, reduce not only COVID-19 cases but also other circulating infections such as influenza and RSV. The susceptible population for these infections will increase while NPIs are in place. Using models fit to historic cases of RSV and influenza, we project large future outbreaks of both diseases may occur following a period of extended NPIs. These outbreaks, which may reach peak numbers in the winter, could increase the burden to healthcare systems.</jats:p>
収録刊行物
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- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117 (48), 30547-30553, 2020-11-09
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences