Bounding Global Aerosol Radiative Forcing of Climate Change

DOI DOI HANDLE HANDLE HANDLE ほか6件をすべて表示 一部だけ表示 被引用文献19件 オープンアクセス
  • N. Bellouin
    Department of Meteorology University of Reading Reading UK
  • J. Quaas
    Institute for Meteorology Universität Leipzig Leipzig Germany
  • E. Gryspeerdt
    Space and Atmospheric Physics Group Imperial College London London UK
  • S. Kinne
    Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg Germany
  • P. Stier
    Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics University of Oxford Oxford UK
  • D. Watson‐Parris
    Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics University of Oxford Oxford UK
  • O. Boucher
    Institut Pierre‐Simon Laplace, Sorbonne Université/CNRS Paris France
  • K. S. Carslaw
    School of Earth and Environment University of Leeds Leeds UK
  • M. Christensen
    Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics University of Oxford Oxford UK
  • A.‐L. Daniau
    EPOC, UMR 5805, CNRS‐Université de Bordeaux Pessac France
  • J.‐L. Dufresne
    Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique/IPSL, CNRS, Sorbonne Université, Ecole Normale Supérieure, PSL Research University, Ecole Polytechnique Paris France
  • G. Feingold
    NOAA ESRL Chemical Sciences Division Boulder CO USA
  • S. Fiedler
    Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg Germany
  • P. Forster
    Priestley International Centre for Climate University of Leeds Leeds UK
  • A. Gettelman
    National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USA
  • J. M. Haywood
    CEMPS University of Exeter Exeter UK
  • U. Lohmann
    Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science ETH Zürich Zürich Switzerland
  • F. Malavelle
    CEMPS University of Exeter Exeter UK
  • T. Mauritsen
    Department of Meteorology Stockholm University Stockholm Sweden
  • D. T. McCoy
    School of Earth and Environment University of Leeds Leeds UK
  • G. Myhre
    Center for International Climate and Environmental Research‐Oslo (CICERO) Oslo Norway
  • J. Mülmenstädt
    Institute for Meteorology Universität Leipzig Leipzig Germany
  • D. Neubauer
    Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science ETH Zürich Zürich Switzerland
  • A. Possner
    Department of Global Ecology Carnegie Institution for Science Stanford CA USA
  • M. Rugenstein
    Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg Germany
  • Y. Sato
    Department of Applied Energy, Graduate School of Engineering, Nagoya University Nagoya Japan
  • M. Schulz
    Climate Modelling and Air Pollution Section, Research and Development Department Norwegian Meteorological Institute Oslo Norway
  • S. E. Schwartz
    Brookhaven National Laboratory Environmental and Climate Sciences Department Upton NY USA
  • O. Sourdeval
    Institute for Meteorology Universität Leipzig Leipzig Germany
  • T. Storelvmo
    Department of Geosciences University of Oslo Oslo Norway
  • V. Toll
    Department of Meteorology University of Reading Reading UK
  • D. Winker
    NASA Langley Research Center Hampton VA USA
  • B. Stevens
    Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg Germany

書誌事項

公開日
2020-03
権利情報
  • http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
  • http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
DOI
  • 10.1029/2019rg000660
  • 10.3929/ethz-b-000409274
公開者
American Geophysical Union (AGU)

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説明

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Aerosols interact with radiation and clouds. Substantial progress made over the past 40 years in observing, understanding, and modeling these processes helped quantify the imbalance in the Earth's radiation budget caused by anthropogenic aerosols, called aerosol radiative forcing, but uncertainties remain large. This review provides a new range of aerosol radiative forcing over the industrial era based on multiple, traceable, and arguable lines of evidence, including modeling approaches, theoretical considerations, and observations. Improved understanding of aerosol absorption and the causes of trends in surface radiative fluxes constrain the forcing from aerosol‐radiation interactions. A robust theoretical foundation and convincing evidence constrain the forcing caused by aerosol‐driven increases in liquid cloud droplet number concentration. However, the influence of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud liquid water content and cloud fraction is less clear, and the influence on mixed‐phase and ice clouds remains poorly constrained. Observed changes in surface temperature and radiative fluxes provide additional constraints. These multiple lines of evidence lead to a 68% confidence interval for the total aerosol effective radiative forcing of ‐1.6 to ‐0.6 W m<jats:sup>−2</jats:sup>, or ‐2.0 to ‐0.4 W m<jats:sup>−2</jats:sup> with a 90% likelihood. Those intervals are of similar width to the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment but shifted toward more negative values. The uncertainty will narrow in the future by continuing to critically combine multiple lines of evidence, especially those addressing industrial‐era changes in aerosol sources and aerosol effects on liquid cloud amount and on ice clouds.</jats:p>

収録刊行物

  • Reviews of Geophysics

    Reviews of Geophysics 58 (1), e2019RG000660-, 2020-03

    American Geophysical Union (AGU)

被引用文献 (19)*注記

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