Climate and carbon cycle changes from 1850 to 2100 in MPI‐ESM simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5
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- Marco A. Giorgetta
- Max‐Planck‐Institut für Meteorologie KlimaCampus Hamburg Germany
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- Johann Jungclaus
- Max‐Planck‐Institut für Meteorologie KlimaCampus Hamburg Germany
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- Christian H. Reick
- Max‐Planck‐Institut für Meteorologie KlimaCampus Hamburg Germany
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- Stephanie Legutke
- Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum KlimaCampus Hamburg Germany
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- Jürgen Bader
- Max‐Planck‐Institut für Meteorologie KlimaCampus Hamburg Germany
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- Michael Böttinger
- Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum KlimaCampus Hamburg Germany
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- Victor Brovkin
- Max‐Planck‐Institut für Meteorologie KlimaCampus Hamburg Germany
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- Traute Crueger
- Max‐Planck‐Institut für Meteorologie KlimaCampus Hamburg Germany
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- Monika Esch
- Max‐Planck‐Institut für Meteorologie KlimaCampus Hamburg Germany
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- Kerstin Fieg
- Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum KlimaCampus Hamburg Germany
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- Ksenia Glushak
- Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum KlimaCampus Hamburg Germany
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- Veronika Gayler
- Max‐Planck‐Institut für Meteorologie KlimaCampus Hamburg Germany
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- Helmuth Haak
- Max‐Planck‐Institut für Meteorologie KlimaCampus Hamburg Germany
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- Heinz‐Dieter Hollweg
- Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum KlimaCampus Hamburg Germany
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- Tatiana Ilyina
- Max‐Planck‐Institut für Meteorologie KlimaCampus Hamburg Germany
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- Stefan Kinne
- Max‐Planck‐Institut für Meteorologie KlimaCampus Hamburg Germany
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- Luis Kornblueh
- Max‐Planck‐Institut für Meteorologie KlimaCampus Hamburg Germany
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- Daniela Matei
- Max‐Planck‐Institut für Meteorologie KlimaCampus Hamburg Germany
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- Thorsten Mauritsen
- Max‐Planck‐Institut für Meteorologie KlimaCampus Hamburg Germany
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- Uwe Mikolajewicz
- Max‐Planck‐Institut für Meteorologie KlimaCampus Hamburg Germany
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- Wolfgang Mueller
- Max‐Planck‐Institut für Meteorologie KlimaCampus Hamburg Germany
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- Dirk Notz
- Max‐Planck‐Institut für Meteorologie KlimaCampus Hamburg Germany
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- Felix Pithan
- Max‐Planck‐Institut für Meteorologie KlimaCampus Hamburg Germany
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- Thomas Raddatz
- Max‐Planck‐Institut für Meteorologie KlimaCampus Hamburg Germany
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- Sebastian Rast
- Max‐Planck‐Institut für Meteorologie KlimaCampus Hamburg Germany
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- Rene Redler
- Max‐Planck‐Institut für Meteorologie KlimaCampus Hamburg Germany
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- Erich Roeckner
- Max‐Planck‐Institut für Meteorologie KlimaCampus Hamburg Germany
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- Hauke Schmidt
- Max‐Planck‐Institut für Meteorologie KlimaCampus Hamburg Germany
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- Reiner Schnur
- Max‐Planck‐Institut für Meteorologie KlimaCampus Hamburg Germany
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- Joachim Segschneider
- Max‐Planck‐Institut für Meteorologie KlimaCampus Hamburg Germany
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- Katharina D. Six
- Max‐Planck‐Institut für Meteorologie KlimaCampus Hamburg Germany
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- Martina Stockhause
- Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum KlimaCampus Hamburg Germany
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- Claudia Timmreck
- Max‐Planck‐Institut für Meteorologie KlimaCampus Hamburg Germany
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- Jörg Wegner
- Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum KlimaCampus Hamburg Germany
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- Heinrich Widmann
- Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum KlimaCampus Hamburg Germany
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- Karl‐H. Wieners
- Max‐Planck‐Institut für Meteorologie KlimaCampus Hamburg Germany
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- Martin Claussen
- Max‐Planck‐Institut für Meteorologie KlimaCampus Hamburg Germany
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- Jochem Marotzke
- Max‐Planck‐Institut für Meteorologie KlimaCampus Hamburg Germany
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- Bjorn Stevens
- Max‐Planck‐Institut für Meteorologie KlimaCampus Hamburg Germany
書誌事項
- 公開日
- 2013-07
- 権利情報
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- http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor
- DOI
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- 10.1002/jame.20038
- 公開者
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
この論文をさがす
説明
<jats:p> The new Max‐Planck‐Institute Earth System Model (MPI‐ESM) is used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in a series of climate change experiments for either idealized CO <jats:sub>2</jats:sub> ‐only forcing or forcings based on observations and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The paper gives an overview of the model configurations, experiments related forcings, and initialization procedures and presents results for the simulated changes in climate and carbon cycle. It is found that the climate feedback depends on the global warming and possibly the forcing history. The global warming from climatological 1850 conditions to 2080–2100 ranges from 1.5°C under the RCP2.6 scenario to 4.4°C under the RCP8.5 scenario. Over this range, the patterns of temperature and precipitation change are nearly independent of the global warming. The model shows a tendency to reduce the ocean heat uptake efficiency toward a warmer climate, and hence acceleration in warming in the later years. The precipitation sensitivity can be as high as 2.5% K <jats:sup>−1</jats:sup> if the CO <jats:sub>2</jats:sub> concentration is constant, or as small as 1.6% K <jats:sup>−1</jats:sup> , if the CO <jats:sub>2</jats:sub> concentration is increasing. The oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon increases over time in all scenarios, being smallest in the experiment forced by RCP2.6 and largest in that for RCP8.5. The land also serves as a net carbon sink in all scenarios, predominantly in boreal regions. The strong tropical carbon sources found in the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 experiments are almost absent in the RCP4.5 experiment, which can be explained by reforestation in the RCP4.5 scenario. </jats:p>
収録刊行物
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- Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
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Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 5 (3), 572-597, 2013-07
American Geophysical Union (AGU)

