The Impact of Global Warming on Wind Energy Resources and Ramp Events in Japan

DOI Web Site 被引用文献10件 参考文献52件
  • Masamichi Ohba
    Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI), Environmental Science Research Laboratory, 1646 Abiko, Abiko-shi, Chiba 270-1194, Japan

書誌事項

公開日
2019-05-13
資源種別
journal article
権利情報
  • https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
DOI
  • 10.3390/atmos10050265
公開者
MDPI AG

説明

<jats:p>This study investigated the impact of global warming on Japanese wind energy resources and their short-term variations using the large ensemble d4PDF dataset, which consists of dynamically downscaled historical and +4K future climate projections. The capacity factor under the future and present climate was estimated from an idealized power curve based on hourly near-surface wind speeds. The +4K warming future climate projections showed significant changes in wind energy resources that varied both regionally and seasonally. The wind energy potential was projected to slightly increase (decrease) from winter to spring over northern (southern) Japan and decrease from summer to autumn over most of Japan. The projected annual production decreased by about ~5% over Japan in response to climate change. The frequency of wind ramp events also decreased in the latter seasons. The relationship to synoptic weather was investigated using self-organizing maps, whereby weather patterns (WPs) over the region in the present and future +4K climate were classified for a two-dimensional lattice. Future probabilistic projections of WPs under the global warming scenario showed both increases and decreases in the frequency of different WPs, with corresponding advantages and disadvantages for wind power generation with regard to future changes in capacity factors in Japan. The importance of these frequency changes on the total change was further assessed by separating the dynamical and thermodynamic contributions.</jats:p>

収録刊行物

  • Atmosphere

    Atmosphere 10 (5), 265-, 2019-05-13

    MDPI AG

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