The predictability of extinction: biological and external correlates of decline in mammals

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  • Marcel Cardillo
    Division of Biology, Imperial College LondonSilwood Park campus, Ascot SL5 7PY, UK
  • Georgina M Mace
    Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of LondonRegent's Park NW1 4RY, UK
  • John L Gittleman
    Department of Biology, University of VirginiaCharlottesville, VA 22904-4328, USA
  • Kate E Jones
    Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of LondonRegent's Park NW1 4RY, UK
  • Jon Bielby
    Division of Biology, Imperial College LondonSilwood Park campus, Ascot SL5 7PY, UK
  • Andy Purvis
    Division of Biology, Imperial College LondonSilwood Park campus, Ascot SL5 7PY, UK

説明

<jats:p> Extinction risk varies among species, and comparative analyses can help clarify the causes of this variation. Here we present a phylogenetic comparative analysis of species-level extinction risk across nearly the whole of the class Mammalia. Our aims were to examine systematically the degree to which general predictors of extinction risk can be identified, and to investigate the relative importance of different types of predictors (life history, ecological, human impact and environmental) in determining extinction risk. A single global model explained 27.3% of variation in mammal extinction risk, but explanatory power was lower for region-specific models (median <jats:italic>R</jats:italic> <jats:sup>2</jats:sup> =0.248) and usually higher for taxon-specific models (median <jats:italic>R</jats:italic> <jats:sup>2</jats:sup> =0.383). Geographical range size, human population density and latitude were the most consistently significant predictors of extinction risk, but otherwise there was little evidence for general, prescriptive indicators of high extinction risk across mammals. Our results therefore support the view that comparative models of relatively narrow taxonomic scope are likely to be the most precise. </jats:p>

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