On the estimation of seismic intensity in earthquake early warning systems

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  • Shunroku Yamamoto
    National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention Tsukuba Japan
  • Paul Rydelek
    National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention Tsukuba Japan
  • Shigeki Horiuchi
    National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention Tsukuba Japan
  • Changjiang Wu
    National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention Tsukuba Japan
  • Hiromitsu Nakamura
    National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention Tsukuba Japan

書誌事項

公開日
2008-04
権利情報
  • http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor
DOI
  • 10.1029/2007gl033034
公開者
American Geophysical Union (AGU)

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説明

<jats:p>The infamous Tokai Earthquake, which by some accounts is overdue, is expected to be a magnitude ≥ 8 event that will cause unprecedented damage in regions of Japan. To mitigate hazards from large earthquakes in Japan, an earthquake early warning (EEW) system was developed that is able to determine hypocentral locations from P‐arrival data within a few seconds and then transmit this information before the onset of large ground motions from the later arrival of S‐waves. We introduced a new source parameter for seismic intensity magnitude that can be estimated from the real‐time P‐wave data during the early stages of fault rupture for most earthquakes M ≥ 6.5. The use of this parameter results in a significant improvement in the uncertainty in the estimated seismic intensity compared to estimates derived from earthquake magnitude. A pre‐established relation between the P‐ and S‐wave seismic intensity therefore enables an EEW system to issue a rapid and reasonably reliable prediction of the amount of ground shaking that may be expected from the damaging S‐waves.</jats:p>

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