Shortwave radiative forcing and feedback to the surface by sulphate geoengineering: Analysis of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project G4 scenario

<jats:p>Abstract. This study evaluates the forcing and feedback of net shortwave radiation at the surface in the G4 experiment of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project by analysing outputs from six participating models. G4 involves injection of 5 Tg yr−1 of SO2, a sulphate aerosol precursor, into the lower stratosphere from year 2020 to 2070 against a background scenario of RCP4.5. A single layer atmospheric model for shortwave radiative transfer is used to estimate the direct forcing of solar radiation management (SRM) and feedback effects from changes in the water vapour amount, cloud amount, and surface albedo (compared with RCP4.5). The analysis shows that the globally and temporally averaged SRM forcing ranges from −3.6 to −1.6 W m−2, depending on the model. The feedback effects due to changes in the water vapour and cloud amounts on net shortwave radiation have heating effects ranging from approximately 0.4 to 1.5 W m−2 and weaken the effect of SRM by around 50 %. The surface albedo changes have a cooling effect, which is locally strong (~ 4 W m−2) in snow and sea ice melting regions, but minor for the global average. The analyses show that the results of the G4 experiment, which simulates sulphate geoengineering, include large inter-model variability both in the direct SRM forcing and the feedback from changes in the cloud amount, and imply a high uncertainty in modelled processes of sulphate aerosols and clouds. </jats:p>