Advances in understanding large‐scale responses of the water cycle to climate change
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- Richard P. Allan
- Department of Meteorology and National Centre for Earth Observation University of Reading Reading United Kingdom
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- Mathew Barlow
- Department of Environmental Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Massachusetts Lowell Lowell Massachusetts
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- Michael P. Byrne
- School of Earth and Environmental Science, University of St Andrews St Andrews United Kingdom
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- Annalisa Cherchi
- Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia Sezione di Bologna INGV Bologna Italy
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- Hervé Douville
- Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Météo-France/CNRS Toulouse France
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- Hayley J. Fowler
- University of Newcastle Newcastle upon Tyne United Kingdom
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- Thian Y. Gan
- University of Alberta Edmonton Alberta Canada
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- Angeline G. Pendergrass
- National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder Colorado
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- Daniel Rosenfeld
- Institute of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem Jerusalem Israel
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- Abigail L. S. Swann
- University of Washington Seattle Washington
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- Laura J. Wilcox
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology University of Reading, Reading United Kingdom
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- Olga Zolina
- L’Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement/Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, L’Université Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble France
書誌事項
- 公開日
- 2020-04-04
- 権利情報
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- http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
- DOI
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- 10.1111/nyas.14337
- 公開者
- Wiley
この論文をさがす
説明
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p>Globally, thermodynamics explains an increase in atmospheric water vapor with warming of around 7%/°C near to the surface. In contrast, global precipitation and evaporation are constrained by the Earth's energy balance to increase at ∼2–3%/°C. However, this rate of increase is suppressed by rapid atmospheric adjustments in response to greenhouse gases and absorbing aerosols that directly alter the atmospheric energy budget. Rapid adjustments to forcings, cooling effects from scattering aerosol, and observational uncertainty can explain why observed global precipitation responses are currently difficult to detect but are expected to emerge and accelerate as warming increases and aerosol forcing diminishes. Precipitation increases with warming are expected to be smaller over land than ocean due to limitations on moisture convergence, exacerbated by feedbacks and affected by rapid adjustments. Thermodynamic increases in atmospheric moisture fluxes amplify wet and dry events, driving an intensification of precipitation extremes. The rate of intensification can deviate from a simple thermodynamic response due to in‐storm and larger‐scale feedback processes, while changes in large‐scale dynamics and catchment characteristics further modulate the frequency of flooding in response to precipitation increases. Changes in atmospheric circulation in response to radiative forcing and evolving surface temperature patterns are capable of dominating water cycle changes in some regions. Moreover, the direct impact of human activities on the water cycle through water abstraction, irrigation, and land use change is already a significant component of regional water cycle change and is expected to further increase in importance as water demand grows with global population.</jats:p>
収録刊行物
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- Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
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Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 1472 (1), 49-75, 2020-04-04
Wiley
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キーワード
詳細情報 詳細情報について
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- CRID
- 1362825893873247232
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- ISSN
- 17496632
- 00778923
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- HANDLE
- 10023/19765
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- PubMed
- 32246848
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- データソース種別
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- Crossref
- OpenAIRE