Idiot's Bayes—Not So Stupid After All?

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<jats:title>Summary</jats:title><jats:p>Folklore has it that a very simple supervised classification rule, based on the typically false assumption that the predictor variables are independent, can be highly effective, and often more effective than sophisticated rules. We examine the evidence for this, both empirical, as observed in real data applications, and theoretical, summarising explanations for why this simple rule might be effective.</jats:p>

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