Global estimates of mortality associated with long-term exposure to outdoor fine particulate matter
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- Richard Burnett
- Population Studies Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON K1A 0K9, Canada;
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- Hong Chen
- Population Studies Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON K1A 0K9, Canada;
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- Mieczysław Szyszkowicz
- Population Studies Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON K1A 0K9, Canada;
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- Neal Fann
- Risk and Benefits Group, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC 20460;
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- Bryan Hubbell
- Office of Research and Development, US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC 20460;
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- C. Arden Pope
- Department of Economics, Brigham Young University, Provo, UT 84602;
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- Joshua S. Apte
- Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712;
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- Michael Brauer
- School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z3, Canada;
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- Aaron Cohen
- Health Effects Institute, Boston, MA 02110-1817;
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- Scott Weichenthal
- Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, QC H3A 0G4, Canada;
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- Jay Coggins
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455;
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- Qian Di
- Department of Biostatistics, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115;
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- Bert Brunekreef
- Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences, Universiteit Utrecht, 3512 JE Utrecht, The Netherlands;
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- Joseph Frostad
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195;
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- Stephen S. Lim
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195;
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- Haidong Kan
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China;
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- Katherine D. Walker
- Health Effects Institute, Boston, MA 02110-1817;
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- George D. Thurston
- Environmental Medicine and Population Health, Program in Human Exposures and Health Effects, New York University School of Medicine, New York, NY 10016;
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- Richard B. Hayes
- Department of Population Health, NYU Langone Medical Center, New York, NY 10016;
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- Chris C. Lim
- Department of Environmental Medicine, New York University School of Medicine, New York, NY 10016;
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- Michelle C. Turner
- ISGlobal, Barcelona Institute for Global Health, 08036 Barcelona, Spain;
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- Michael Jerrett
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Fielding School of Public Health, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095;
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- Daniel Krewski
- McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON K1N 6N5, Canada;
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- Susan M. Gapstur
- Epidemiology Research Program, American Cancer Society, Inc., Atlanta, GA 30303;
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- W. Ryan Diver
- Epidemiology Research Program, American Cancer Society, Inc., Atlanta, GA 30303;
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- Bart Ostro
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis, CA 95616;
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- Debbie Goldberg
- Cancer Prevention Institute of California, Fremont, CA 94538;
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- Daniel L. Crouse
- Department of Sociology, University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB E3B 5A3, Canada;
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- Randall V. Martin
- Department of Physics and Atmospheric Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada;
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- Paul Peters
- Department of Health Sciences, Carleton University, Ottawa, ON K1S 5B6, Canada;
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- Lauren Pinault
- Health Analysis Division, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, ON K1A 0T6, Canada;
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- Michael Tjepkema
- Health Analysis Division, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, ON K1A 0T6, Canada;
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- Aaron van Donkelaar
- Department of Physics and Atmospheric Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada;
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- Paul J. Villeneuve
- Department of Health Sciences, Carleton University, Ottawa, ON K1S 5B6, Canada;
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- Anthony B. Miller
- Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5T 3M7, Canada;
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- Peng Yin
- National Center for Chronic Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China;
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- Maigeng Zhou
- National Center for Chronic Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China;
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- Lijun Wang
- National Center for Chronic Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China;
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- Nicole A. H. Janssen
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands;
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- Marten Marra
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands;
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- Richard W. Atkinson
- Population Health Research Institute, St. George’s, University of London, London SW17 0RE, United Kingdom;
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- Hilda Tsang
- School of Public Health, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China;
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- Thuan Quoc Thach
- School of Public Health, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China;
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- John B. Cannon
- Department of Economics, Brigham Young University, Provo, UT 84602;
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- Ryan T. Allen
- Department of Economics, Brigham Young University, Provo, UT 84602;
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- Jaime E. Hart
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard C.T. Channing School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA 02115;
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- Francine Laden
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard C.T. Channing School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA 02115;
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- Giulia Cesaroni
- Department of Epidemiology, Regional Health Service, ASL Roma 1, 00147 Rome, Italy;
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- Francesco Forastiere
- Department of Epidemiology, Regional Health Service, ASL Roma 1, 00147 Rome, Italy;
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- Gudrun Weinmayr
- Institute of Epidemiology and Medical Biometry, Ulm University, 89081 Ulm, Germany;
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- Andrea Jaensch
- Institute of Epidemiology and Medical Biometry, Ulm University, 89081 Ulm, Germany;
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- Gabriele Nagel
- Institute of Epidemiology and Medical Biometry, Ulm University, 89081 Ulm, Germany;
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- Hans Concin
- Agency for Preventive and Social Medicine, 6900 Bregenz, Austria;
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- Joseph V. Spadaro
- Spadaro Environmental Research Consultants (SERC), Philadelphia, PA 19142
抄録
<jats:p> Exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM <jats:sub>2.5</jats:sub> ) is a major global health concern. Quantitative estimates of attributable mortality are based on disease-specific hazard ratio models that incorporate risk information from multiple PM <jats:sub>2.5</jats:sub> sources (outdoor and indoor air pollution from use of solid fuels and secondhand and active smoking), requiring assumptions about equivalent exposure and toxicity. We relax these contentious assumptions by constructing a PM <jats:sub>2.5</jats:sub> -mortality hazard ratio function based only on cohort studies of outdoor air pollution that covers the global exposure range. We modeled the shape of the association between PM <jats:sub>2.5</jats:sub> and nonaccidental mortality using data from 41 cohorts from 16 countries—the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM). We then constructed GEMMs for five specific causes of death examined by the global burden of disease (GBD). The GEMM predicts 8.9 million [95% confidence interval (CI): 7.5–10.3] deaths in 2015, a figure 30% larger than that predicted by the sum of deaths among the five specific causes (6.9; 95% CI: 4.9–8.5) and 120% larger than the risk function used in the GBD (4.0; 95% CI: 3.3–4.8). Differences between the GEMM and GBD risk functions are larger for a 20% reduction in concentrations, with the GEMM predicting 220% higher excess deaths. These results suggest that PM <jats:sub>2.5</jats:sub> exposure may be related to additional causes of death than the five considered by the GBD and that incorporation of risk information from other, nonoutdoor, particle sources leads to underestimation of disease burden, especially at higher concentrations. </jats:p>
収録刊行物
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- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115 (38), 9592-9597, 2018-09-04
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences